Peterson Institute for International Economics

A detail of a US one hundred dollar bill is displayed in this picture illustration. Picture taken December 2023.

Photo Credit: NurPhoto/Matias Baglietto

Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence

Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

The Trump administration's grant of a US Treasury swap line to influence Argentina's election last year and the United Arab Emirates' recent request for a Federal Reserve swap line highlight the danger of the US using dollar liquidity lifelines as a foreign policy tool.

People celebrate July 4th in Washington DC. Picture taken on July 4, 2025.

REUTERS Maretplace/Dominic Gwinn

Photo Credit: REUTERS Maretplace/Dominic Gwinn

RealTime Economics

International trade policy on America's 250th birthday

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

June 17, 2026

A cargo ship loaded with foreign trade containers enters Qingdao Port in Shandong Province, China. Photo taken on May 29, 2026.

Sipa USA/CFOTO

Photo Credit: Sipa USA/CFOTO

RealTime Economics

US reciprocal trade deals built to push America's trade partners away from China

Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

June 4, 2026

Trucks queue up at the US-Mexico border as the two governments are set to begin a bilateral review of the USMCA trade agreement that will also include Canada. March 12, 2026.

REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez

RealTime Economics

Which states and products risk the greatest losses if the USMCA is terminated?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 11, 2026

People walk in front of a mural of an oil pump on Venezuela's national flag, near the headquarters of the state-run oil company PDVSA, in Caracas, Venezuela. Picture taken on January 13, 2026.

REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

RealTime Economics

Are Venezuelan bondholders trying to jump the line?

Alejandro Werner (PIIE)

June 8, 2026

What's New

People celebrate July 4th in Washington DC. Picture taken on July 4, 2025.

International trade policy on America's 250th birthday

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

June 17, 2026

President Donald Trump signing an executive order at a "Liberation Day" event where the president signed an executive order creating reciprocal tariffs, in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C.

Trump's Quest to Deform International Trade

Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

June 17, 2026

via Freedom Frequency

A detail of a US one hundred dollar bill is displayed in this picture illustration. Picture taken December 2023.

Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence

Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

June 2026

The United States Social Security Administration website is shown in this photo illustration. February 17, 2026.

I Worked in the White House. We Never Imagined This Problem Would Get This Bad.

Jason Furman (PIIE)

June 12, 2026

via New York Times

PIIE Charts

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 15, 2026

US "reciprocal" trade deals are designed to constrain China to varying degrees

US "reciprocal" trade deals are designed to constrain China to varying degrees

Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

June 11, 2026

Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging markets

Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging markets

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University), Marcus Noland (PIIE) and Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.)

June 8, 2026

War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies

War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

Geopolitics and global value chains: Implications for trade policy and development in Asia

June 23, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Neil Foster-McGregor (Asian Development Bank) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

Jun

23

Labor markets and structural transformation in times of change: AI and demographic shifts

November 17, 9:00 AM EST to November 18, 2026, 5:00 PM EST

Nov

17

Featured Topics

US Federal Reserve

A detail of a US one hundred dollar bill is displayed in this picture illustration. Picture taken December 2023.

Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence

Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

June 2026

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board building is seen in Washington, DC. Photo taken on June 14, 2022.

Amid wartime disruptions, most emerging-market central banks will follow the Fed

Alfredo Mendoza-Fernández (University of California, Berkeley), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) and Serra Pelin (PIIE)

April 23, 2026

Patrons exit a supermarket in Florida where consumer prices have soared due to inflation.

The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE)

January 2026

Tariffs

Trucks queue up at the US-Mexico border as the two governments are set to begin a bilateral review of the USMCA trade agreement that will also include Canada. March 12, 2026.

Which states and products risk the greatest losses if the USMCA is terminated?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 11, 2026

Pix, Brazil's electronic payment system, is seen on a smartphone in this photo illustration.

The latest US squeeze on Brazil jeopardizes its financial autonomy

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

June 9, 2026

Shipping containers sit stacked at the port terminal in Le Havre, France.

What does it take for US trading partners to wean themselves from US markets?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 4, 2026

Inflation

Customer paying with cash in Washington, DC.

Prices Are High. Here's One Reason Not to Panic.

Jason Furman (PIIE)

April 10, 2026

via New York Times

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo taken March 11, 2026.

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook clouded by war, other uncertainties

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

A customer shops at a supermarket in New York as consumer prices surged as inflation hits 40-year high.

The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Distilling lessons from the COVID era

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE), editors

February 2026

China

Shipping containers sit stacked at the port terminal in Le Havre, France.

What does it take for US trading partners to wean themselves from US markets?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 4, 2026

The flags of the European Union and China are displayed on phone screens in this photo illustration. Photo taken on April 12, 2023.

Europe lacks a coherent strategy toward China

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE)

June 2, 2026

Fentanyl pills are displayed in New York City. Photo taken on June 24, 2024.

Fentanyl, China, and Trump's 2025 tariffs

Marcus Noland (PIIE)

May 11, 2026

In The News

Maurice Obstfeld

China Shock 2.0: Surging Chinese exports threaten Europe’s economy, raising concern at G7 summit

via Associated Press

feat. Maurice Obstfeld

Cecilia Malmström

Q&A: After a 'humiliating' U.S. deal, where does the EU trade next?

via The Parliament

feat. Cecilia Malmström

Jed Kolko

The Future of Work and AI

via Wall Street Journal

feat. Jed Kolko

David Wilcox

Trump’s new Fed chief may soon have to raise interest rates

via Washington Post

feat. David Wilcox

Resources

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

PIIE Chart

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

PIIE Chart

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide (featured)

RealTime Economics

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Pixel-Shot/Adobe Stock/stock.adobe.com

Microsite

Title
The future of the USMCA

What Is Globalization?

Microsite

Title
What Is Globalization?

Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s

PIIE Chart

Title
Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s