Peterson Institute for International Economics

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Still, growth is expected to slow across most major economies in 2026.

Watch the Fall 2025 PIIE Global Economic Prospects event.

Workers prepare to weld a steel tube at a factory in Mendota, Illinois. Picture taken on February 21, 2025.

REUTERS/Vincent Alban

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Vincent Alban

RealTime Economics

The global trade war: An update

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University), Marcus Noland (PIIE) and Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.)

October 1, 2025

Stacks of containers are pictured at a port.

REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

Working Papers

Tariffs as Fiscal Policy

Kimberly Clausing (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

September 24, 2025

Argentine peso and US dollar bills are shown in this photo illustration. Picture taken October 17, 2022.

REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/Illustration

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/Illustration

RealTime Economics

Will Argentina become Trump's financial quagmire?

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

October 16, 2025

A US flag and H-1B Visa application form are seen in this photo illustration, taken on September 22, 2025.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

RealTime Economics

New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE)

September 22, 2025

What's New

Maurice Obstfeld on the IMF, tariff revenue, the trade deficit, and more: PIIE Insider LIVE highlights

Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

October 17, 2025

Will Argentina become Trump's financial quagmire?

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

October 16, 2025

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged

Adam S. Posen (PIIE)

October 9, 2025

Data storage tapes are stored at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) facility at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

October 9, 2025

PIIE Charts

Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

October 14, 2025

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

September 25, 2025

Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University), Megan Hogan (PIIE) and Marcus Noland (PIIE)

September 24, 2025

Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs heavily penalize countries that use more imported inputs

Robert Z. Lawrence (PIIE)

September 9, 2025

Europe in a changing international monetary system

October 17, 2025, 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM EDT

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (Former De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland) and Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)

Oct

The London Consensus: Economic Principles for the 21st Century

October 22, 2025, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

C. Fred Bergsten (PIIE), Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Tim Besley (London School of Economics), Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan (Brown University) and Andrés Velasco (London School of Economics)

Oct

Congress's role in the trade war: A bipartisan conversation with Senators Kaine and Paul

October 29, 2025, 5:30 PM to 6:15 PM EDT

Chad P. Bown (PIIE), Tim Kaine (US Senate), Rand Paul (US Senate) and Adam S. Posen (PIIE)

Oct

USMCA

Trucks wait for border customs control before crossing into the US from the Cordova-Americas border in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.

Trump's threatened tariffs projected to damage economies of US, Canada, Mexico, and China

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University) and Marcus Noland (PIIE)

January 17, 2025

A customer counts his cash at the register in Flushing, New York

No trade tax is free: Trump’s promised tariffs will hit large flows of electronics, machinery, autos, and chemicals

Julieta Contreras (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Jing Yan (PIIE)

December 12, 2024

Carrier trailers que at the border waiting for customs control to cross into the US, at the Otay border crossing in Tijuana, Mexico.

Restricting imports of Mexican vehicles will harm US manufacturers

Julieta Contreras (PIIE)

December 4, 2024

Tariffs

A view of the US Supreme Court building in Washington, U.S., June 17, 2024.

What should guide the Supreme Court’s decision on Trump’s tariffs?

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

October 7, 2025

The global trade war: An update

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University), Marcus Noland (PIIE) and Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.)

October 1, 2025

Cargo ships full of shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland, as trade tensions escalate over US tariffs. Picture taken in Oakland, California on March 6, 2025.

US tariff policy: At this time, the brakes don’t work

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

October 1, 2025

Climate

A crane is used to carry out the construction work of wind turbines near a power plant in Africa.

Global economic governance and the fight against climate change

Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE)

July 2025

Aerial view of a cement plant in Ozarow, Poland. Picture taken October 21, 2024.

Global climate cooperation after 2024: A proposal for a heavy industry climate coalition

Kimberly Clausing (PIIE), Joe Aldy (Harvard University), Dustin Tingley (Harvard University) and Catherine Wolfram (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

July 2025

A worker uses a tractor to spray a field of crops.

Global economic impacts of antimicrobial resistance

Roshen Fernando (World Bank) and Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University)

June 2025

China

How China collateralizes

Anna Gelpern (PIIE), Omar Haddad (Oxford University), Sebastian Horn (University of Hamburg, Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Paulina Kintzinger (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Bradley C. Parks (AidData, William & Mary) and Christoph Trebesch (Kiel University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

September 2025