Peterson Institute for International Economics

Computer chip and AI label is shown in this photo illustration.

Photo Credit: IMAGO/Christian Ohde via Reuters Connect

AI futures: Planning for transformative scenarios before they hit

Era Dabla-Norris (International Monetary Fund) and Anton Korinek (PIIE)

The stark uncertainties about the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) necessitate scenario planning to prepare for the future. If AI reaches and surpasses human levels of intelligence across the board, it would transform our economy and society.

Shipping containers stand stacked in the Port of Seattle in Seattle, Washington. Photo taken on August 11, 2025.

ZUMA Press Wire/© M. Scott Brauer

Photo Credit: ZUMA Press Wire/© M. Scott Brauer

RealTime Economics

Trump's trade war wreaked little havoc on trade patterns last year

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

February 2, 2026

A man carries the US flag outside the US Supreme Court in Washington, DC, as its justices are set to hear oral arguments on President Trump's bid to preserve sweeping tariffs. Picture taken on November 5, 2025.

REUTERS/Nathan Howard

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Nathan Howard

Policy Briefs

Can Trump keep his tariffs if the Supreme Court invalidates them?

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

February 3, 2026

The DeepSeek application appears on a smartphone screen in this photo illustration taken on October 2, 2025.

Nikolas Kokovlis/NurPhoto

Photo Credit: Nikolas Kokovlis/NurPhoto

RealTime Economics

How the AI boom shrugged off the DeepSeek shock and keeps gaining steam

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

February 5, 2026

The national flag of the Republic of India flutters in Chennai. Picture taken September 24, 2024.

ZUMA Press Wire/© Sri Loganathan

Photo Credit: ZUMA Press Wire/© Sri Loganathan

Op-Eds

India may be about to become one of the world’s most open economies

Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

February 5, 2026

via The Economist

What's New

A customer shops at a supermarket in New York as consumer prices surged as inflation hits 40-year high.

The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Distilling lessons from the COVID era

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE), editors

February 2026

How the AI boom shrugged off the DeepSeek shock and keeps gaining steam

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

February 5, 2026

Rare earth minerals are mined in California, USA. Picture taken on May 9, 2023.

Is the US posing a hidden risk in the West’s critical minerals strategy?

Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE)

February 5, 2026

India may be about to become one of the world’s most open economies

Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

February 5, 2026

via The Economist

PIIE Charts

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

February 2, 2026

Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump

Gregory Auclair (PIIE) and Adnan Mazarei (PIIE)

January 29, 2026

China’s private-sector rebound continued in 2025, fueled by “new economy”

Tianlei Huang (PIIE) and Nicolas Véron (PIIE)

January 20, 2026

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

November 14, 2025

Trade Winds

Is the World Trade Organization at a crossroads?

February 18, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EST

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Petros C. Mavroidis (Columbia Law School), Mona Paulsen (London School of Economics and Political Science Law School) and Victor do Prado (Brazilian Centre of International Relations)

Feb