Peterson Institute for International Economics

A cargo ship loaded with foreign trade containers enters Qingdao Port in Shandong Province, China. Photo taken on May 29, 2026.

Photo Credit: Sipa USA/CFOTO

US reciprocal trade deals built to push America's trade partners away from China

Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

The Trump administration has reached nine trade deals designed to pull US trade partners away from China. These so-called Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs) contain legal mechanisms the United States may use to control partners’ supply chains, investment, and trade rules.

Close up view of a smartphone displaying "AI" (Artificial Intelligence) in front of blurred flags of the United States and China, illustrating technological competition between the two countries. June 2026.

Hans Lucas via Reuters Connect/Imen Ben Youssef

Photo Credit: Hans Lucas via Reuters Connect/Imen Ben Youssef

RealTime Economics

Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

People help to stretch the American Flag out to begin the annual 4th of July celebration parade in Bristol, Rhode Island. July 2021.

REUTERS/Quinn Glabicki

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Quinn Glabicki

Op-Eds

America's future in the post-American world economy

Adam S. Posen (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

University students in silhouette walk across campus prior to the commencement program.

ZUMA Wire/Will Lester

Photo Credit: ZUMA Wire/Will Lester

Policy Briefs

Class dismissed: The effect of international student exclusion on the US STEM workforce and economic growth

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE), Jeremy Neufeld (Institute for Progress) and Amy M. Nice (Cornell Law School; Institute for Progress)

June 23, 2026

Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends

PIIE Chart

Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends

Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 22, 2026

What's New

Cars for sale at a car dealership in Texas. These models and parts are subject to Trump’s new tariffs.

Ending USMCA could fuel higher US consumer prices

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Zachary Resneck (PIIE)

July 8, 2026

The US Capitol building is seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. February 2023.

Why the Founding Fathers did not give the president the power to impose tariffs

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

July 7, 2026

A worker pushes a crate of steamed crabs that are ready for processing at a plant on Maryland's Eastern Shore. The processing plant was chosen through a visa lottery to obtain temporary migrant help for the season. May 2018.

Firms allowed to hire immigrant manual laborers expand to hire more Americans

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE) and Ethan G. Lewis (Dartmouth College)

July 2, 2026

Close up view of a smartphone displaying "AI" (Artificial Intelligence) in front of blurred flags of the United States and China, illustrating technological competition between the two countries. June 2026.

Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

PIIE Charts

China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize

China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize

Shoumitro Chatterjee (Johns Hopkins University) and Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

June 30, 2026

Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends

Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends

Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 22, 2026

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 15, 2026

US "reciprocal" trade deals are designed to constrain China to varying degrees

US "reciprocal" trade deals are designed to constrain China to varying degrees

Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

June 11, 2026

What Now, Europe?

Are Trump administration policies catalyzing European unity?

July 23, 2026, 9:00 AM to 9:45 AM EDT

Nicolas Véron (PIIE) and Enrico Letta (IE University)

Jul

23

Labor markets and structural transformation in times of change: AI and demographic shifts

November 17, 9:00 AM EST to November 18, 2026, 5:00 PM EST

Nov

17

Featured Topics

US Federal Reserve

A detail of a US one hundred dollar bill is displayed in this picture illustration. Picture taken December 2023.

Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence

Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

June 2026

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board building is seen in Washington, DC. Photo taken on June 14, 2022.

Amid wartime disruptions, most emerging-market central banks will follow the Fed

Alfredo Mendoza-Fernández (University of California, Berkeley), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) and Serra Pelin (PIIE)

April 23, 2026

Patrons exit a supermarket in Florida where consumer prices have soared due to inflation.

The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE)

January 2026

Tariffs

The US Capitol building is seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. February 2023.

Why the Founding Fathers did not give the president the power to impose tariffs

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

July 7, 2026

Trucks queue up at the US-Mexico border as the two governments are set to begin a bilateral review of the USMCA trade agreement that will also include Canada. March 12, 2026.

Which states and products risk the greatest losses if the USMCA is terminated?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 11, 2026

Pix, Brazil's electronic payment system, is seen on a smartphone in this photo illustration.

The latest US squeeze on Brazil jeopardizes its financial autonomy

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

June 9, 2026

Inflation

Customer paying with cash in Washington, DC.

Prices Are High. Here's One Reason Not to Panic.

Jason Furman (PIIE)

April 10, 2026

via New York Times

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo taken March 11, 2026.

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook clouded by war, other uncertainties

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

A customer shops at a supermarket in New York as consumer prices surged as inflation hits 40-year high.

The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Distilling lessons from the COVID era

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE), editors

February 2026

China

Close up view of a smartphone displaying "AI" (Artificial Intelligence) in front of blurred flags of the United States and China, illustrating technological competition between the two countries. June 2026.

Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Beijing, met to focus on trade, regional security, and strengthening bilateral ties between the world’s two largest economies. May 2026.

Why the US-China trade war lacks the guardrails of the past

Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE)

June 29, 2026

Shipping containers sit stacked at the port terminal in Le Havre, France.

What does it take for US trading partners to wean themselves from US markets?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 4, 2026

In The News

Gary Clyde Hufbauer

Soccer ball imports hit record high ahead of 2026 World Cup

via USA TODAY

feat. Gary Clyde Hufbauer

Adam S. Posen

June jobs report shows a labor market in balance, says PIIE’s Adam Posen

via CNBC

feat. Adam S. Posen

Trump Puts USMCA on ‘Probation’: What It Means for Your Wallet

via Newsweek

feat. Chad P. Bown

Trump Promised a Foreign Investment Boom. It’s Getting Harder to Deliver.

via New York Times

feat. Gregory Auclair et al.

Resources

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

PIIE Chart

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

PIIE Chart

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide (featured)

RealTime Economics

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Pixel-Shot/Adobe Stock/stock.adobe.com

Microsite

Title
The future of the USMCA

What Is Globalization?

Microsite

Title
What Is Globalization?

Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s

PIIE Chart

Title
Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s