Peterson Institute for International Economics

China's national flag flutters at a business district in Beijing, China.

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

How Trump's next tariffs could drive companies back to China

The Trump administration's next policy decisions on tariffs could increase imports from China. Although US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that it would be a mistake for companies that have already moved their sourcing out of China to move it back, the administration's policy may leave companies no choice, Chad P. Bown explains.

A Chinese cargo ship loaded with foreign trade containers is en route from Shandong Province, China. July 2026.

CFOTO/Sipa USA

Photo Credit: CFOTO/Sipa USA

Policy Briefs

Made with China: Global supply chains and the limits of US decoupling

Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

August 4, 2026

A closeup of Japan's Yen banknote is shown in this photo illustration.

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

RealTime Economics

In trying to prop up the yen, the US wants to have its cake and eat it too

Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

August 11, 2026

An American flag flies in front of shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, CA. May 13, 2025.

REUTERS/Mike Blake

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Mike Blake

RealTime Economics

Who pays for tariffs? Insights from recent research

Kimberly Clausing (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

August 3, 2026

University students walk in front of the Peter J. Shields Library on the campus of the University of California, Davis. April 2025.

ZUMA Press Wire/Ruaridh Stewart

Photo Credit: ZUMA Press Wire/Ruaridh Stewart

RealTime Economics

A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE)

July 27, 2026

What's New

A close-up of a judge's gavel is shown in this photo illustration.

Why Trump will lose (again) on the new challenge to his tariffs

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE) and Warren Maruyama*

August 12, 2026

Mercosur is at risk from US tariffs and politics

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

August 12, 2026

A closeup of Japan's Yen banknote is shown in this photo illustration.

In trying to prop up the yen, the US wants to have its cake and eat it too

Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

August 11, 2026

China's national flag flutters at a business district in Beijing, China.

How Trump's next tariffs could drive companies back to China

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

August 10, 2026

PIIE Charts

Trump wants to make Greenland rich, but Denmark outperforms the US economically

Trump wants to make Greenland rich, but Denmark outperforms the US economically

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE)

August 7, 2026

Years of US tariffs on China have largely failed to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers

Years of US tariffs on China have largely failed to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers

Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

August 4, 2026

China's private sector keeps expanding in 2026, while more tech manufacturers climb into the top ranks

China's private sector keeps expanding in 2026, while more tech manufacturers climb into the top ranks

Tianlei Huang (PIIE) and Nicolas Véron (PIIE)

July 30, 2026

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

July 20, 2026

Trade Winds

The Strait of Hormuz closure: What happens to trade and shipping?

August 19, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Simon J. Evenett (IMD Business School), and Dorota Lost-Siemińska (International Maritime Organization)

Aug

19

Labor markets and structural transformation in times of change: AI and demographic shifts

November 17, 9:00 AM EST to November 18, 2026, 5:00 PM EST

Nov

17

Featured Topics

US Federal Reserve

A detail of a US one hundred dollar bill is displayed in this picture illustration. Picture taken December 2023.

Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence

Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

June 2026

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board building is seen in Washington, DC. Photo taken on June 14, 2022.

Amid wartime disruptions, most emerging-market central banks will follow the Fed

Alfredo Mendoza-Fernández (University of California, Berkeley), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) and Serra Pelin (PIIE)

April 23, 2026

Patrons exit a supermarket in Florida where consumer prices have soared due to inflation.

The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE)

January 2026

Tariffs

A close-up of a judge's gavel is shown in this photo illustration.

Why Trump will lose (again) on the new challenge to his tariffs

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE) and Warren Maruyama*

August 12, 2026

China's national flag flutters at a business district in Beijing, China.

How Trump's next tariffs could drive companies back to China

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

August 10, 2026

A woman takes a picture of New York City's midtown skyline that is shrouded in smoke coming from the Canadian wildfires.

Tariffs on Canada over wildfires would fan the flames of the problem

Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE)

August 10, 2026

Inflation

A view of Buenos Aires in Argentina at sunset. April 2026.

Argentina: The challenge and the opportunity

Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

July 2026

Customer paying with cash in Washington, DC.

Prices Are High. Here's One Reason Not to Panic.

Jason Furman (PIIE)

April 10, 2026

via New York Times

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo taken March 11, 2026.

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook clouded by war, other uncertainties

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

China

China's national flag flutters at a business district in Beijing, China.

How Trump's next tariffs could drive companies back to China

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

August 10, 2026

Fewer people in China are investing in homes after property values crashed.

China's property bust is spilling across its borders

Tianlei Huang (PIIE)

August 7, 2026

A Chinese cargo ship loaded with foreign trade containers is en route from Shandong Province, China. July 2026.

Made with China: Global supply chains and the limits of US decoupling

Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

August 2026

In The News

Jed Kolko

Economist explains what the latest jobs report and inflation data means

via NPR

feat. Jed Kolko

Elina Ribakova

Why is Russia selling its gold?

via DW

feat. Elina Ribakova

Michael Clemens (featured)

Between job losses and potential deportations, South Florida Haitians head for the underground economy

via Sun Sentinel

feat. Michael A. Clemens

Adam S. Posen

Spooked investors demand clarity on Fed’s anti-inflation strategy

via Washington Post

feat. Adam S. Posen

Resources

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

PIIE Chart

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

PIIE Chart

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide (featured)

RealTime Economics

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Pixel-Shot/Adobe Stock/stock.adobe.com

Microsite

Title
The future of the USMCA

What Is Globalization?

Microsite

Title
What Is Globalization?

Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s

PIIE Chart

Title
Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s