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US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev achieved the maximum of what had seemed possible when they met in Moscow on July 6. With satisfaction and some justification, President Obama could conclude: "We resolved to reset US-Russian relations..."
As expected, the emphasis lay on military matters. The critical success was that the two presidents agreed to reduce their strategic nuclear arsenals in a treaty that would succeed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1) from 1991 after it lapses in December. Russia offered the United States a great bonus by permitting the transit of troops and arms to Afghanistan through Russian territory. Missile defense was the greatest bone of contention, but Obama and Medvedev made a joint statement on cooperation on missile defense, while they agreed to disagree over Georgia's territorial integrity. The good security relations were manifested by resumed military cooperation.
Beyond security policy, especially in the economic sphere, nothing had been expected to come from the meeting. But an important Russian goodwill measure was to lift restrictions on imports of US livestock. To crown these achievements, the two presidents agreed to restore a bilateral presidential commission for broader cooperation with a multitude of working groups.
This summit was a success for both presidents, as they showed that they could work so constructively together. Arguably, both achieved their aims. By personally making reasonable concessions, President Medvedev showed that he was in charge and seeks to portray himself as the real Russian leader. Daringly, he praised Obama's candid public speech on freedom.
Similarly, President Obama went out of his way to emphasize Medvedev's leadership. When asked who is in charge in Russia, he made the obvious statement that his understanding was "that President Medvedev is the president." In his public speech at the New Economic School, Obama struck an eminent balance, arguing that the United States and Russia had common national interests while maintaining American values, such as democracy. His bottom line was: "America wants a strong, peaceful, and prosperous Russia."
By publicly criticizing Prime Minister Vladimir Putin before the summit for standing with one foot in the Cold War, Obama set the stage. Putin had the choice of showing that Obama was right by being as rough as usual or by being conciliatory. He chose the latter. Obama's public statement when meeting Putin said it all: "We think there's an excellent opportunity to put US-Russian relations on a much stronger footing."
The greatest immediate concern was that Russia would restart the war in Georgia after Obama's visit to Moscow. Obama did not shy away from this issue but reiterated his "firm belief that Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected." The evident success of this summit should diminish that risk.
The prospects for the summit had not been auspicious. On June 9, Prime Minister Putin declared that Russia would cease applying for membership of the World Trade Organization, thereby taking most economic issues off the agenda. Russian officials had insisted that Russia was not prepared to prolong START if the United States did not commit itself to abstain from missile defense or to undertake far greater strategic missile cuts. But Medvedev accepted a reasonable compromise and separated the missile defense issue from START. The recent troubles in Iran had minimized the room for action on Iran. The two presidents were in a tough spot, but together they managed to make the most of it.
The risk for an immediate set-back remains. Prime Minister Putin has a proven knack for undermining President Medvedev's international commitment. After the G-8 meeting in Japan last July, Russia vetoed sanctions against Zimbabwe in the UN Security Council that Medvedev had condoned. After the G-20 meeting in Washington last November, Putin instantly introduced prohibitive import tariffs for cars, although Medvedev had committed Russia to no further protectionist measures.
The question remains whether Putin will repeat his bravura. Still, the positive emotions from the summit seem so overwhelming that the Russians should be able to contain the possibility of a backward step. Through the presidential commission, an institutional framework has been formed for substantial US-Russia cooperation. For Russia a way back into further international cooperation, possibly even including the World Trade Organization, may now have opened.
