Americans have been paying tariffs on imports from China for decades

The Trump administration imposed large new tariffs on US imports from China starting in 2018. The Biden administration has essentially maintained those tariffs, while extending a few and adding some technology-based restrictions. Former president Donald Trump has since said that his stance brought hundreds of billions of dollars “pouring into our Treasury from China when no other US president had gotten even 10 cents.” The data paint a different picture.

First, the United States collected tariff revenue on Chinese imports in the late 19th and early 20th centuries and in the past three decades during the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations before Trump took office. Second, the revenue from tariffs on Chinese imports come from the importers, not China. Importing businesses pay tariffs and decide whether to pass any portion of the cost on to consumers through higher prices.

As Trump now runs for reelection against Vice President Kamala Harris, he has talked about sharply raising US tariffs on Chinese imports to 60 percent or more if he wins. The total value of US imports from China peaked in 2018 and has fluctuated a bit below that level since. Tariff revenue from Chinese imports as a share of all imports peaked in 2021 and has declined since. The record shows, however, that tariffs on imports from China have not yielded significant tax revenue. Even at its peak in 2022, revenue from tariffs on China represented just 1.2 percent of total US tax revenue (not shown).

These results reflect, in part, how trade adjusts to tariffs. Although tariff revenue from Chinese imports grew following the implementation of the Trump tariffs, its share of total US tariff revenue declined in recent years as trade shifted to other countries. Consumers and businesses adjust their purchasing behavior in response to higher tariffs, often substituting taxed goods with alternatives. This behavior reduces the effectiveness of tariffs both as a deterrent to imports and as a significant source of revenue.