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Two thousand twenty-four was quite the year. Dominated by the US election and candidate economic policy proposals, here are our most read pieces published this year.
- Trump vs. Harris on immigration: Future policy proposals
This resource, compiled by Megan Hogan, tracked immigration policy proposals made by the Harris and Trump campaigns as of August 2024.
- Trump vs. Biden on immigration: A side-by-side policy comparison
Also compiled by Megan Hogan, this piece listed major US immigration policy changes between 2016 and June 2024, comparing the actions of former President Donald J. Trump and President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. or their administrations.
- How much would Trump's plans for deportations, tariffs, and the Fed damage the US economy?
Among measures proposed by President-elect Trump for his second term are the deportation of millions of people from the United States, steeper tariffs, and the erosion of the Federal Reserve's political independence. Megan Hogan, Marcus Noland, and Warwick McKibbin found these steps would result in lower US national income, lower employment, and higher inflation than otherwise. In some cases, economic conditions would recover over time, but in others the damage would continue through 2040.
And despite Trump's "America first" rhetoric, these policies would harm the US economy more than any other in the world, particularly trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture. In some cases, other countries would enjoy stronger economic growth than otherwise after receiving inflows of capital leaving the United States.
The Working Paper includes an online dashboard containing a full set of macroeconomic and sectoral results for all countries, and the findings were summarized in a blog.
- Can Trump replace income taxes with tariffs?
Former President Donald Trump floated this fiscal swap idea, but it's a dangerous idea that would cost jobs, ignite inflation, increase federal deficits, cause a recession, and shift the tax burden away from the well off and on to the poor and middle class, Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld wrote.
- Trump's bigger tariff proposals would cost the typical American household over $2,600 a year
Updating earlier estimates (piece #8 in this list), Kimberly Clausing and Mary E. Lovely found that the 60 percent tariff on all imports from China and across-the-board tariffs of up to 20 percent on all other goods under consideration by former President Trump would cost the typical American household more than $2,600 a year—about a 4.1 percent cut in after-tax income.
- China's population decline is getting close to irreversible
China's population dropped by more than 2 million in 2023 according to Chinese statistics, with a recorded 9.0 million births and 11.1 million deaths. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard showed how China's birth rate has dropped steeply compared to its death rate since 1985.
- What populists don't understand about tariffs (but economists do)
Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld explained how assessment of tariffs as a policy tool must answer three questions: How costly are tariffs? Would they deliver the desired benefits? Would other policy tools be more effective than tariffs?
Their brief answers are: Very. Negligibly or no. Yes.
- Why Trump's tariff proposals would harm working Americans
Kimberly Clausing and Mary E. Lovely leveraged recent research in May to provide approximate calculations for the cost of the higher proposed tariffs to US consumers, considering the distribution of these costs across US households and the consequences for US federal revenues. They found that Trump's tax proposals entail sharply regressive tax policy changes, shifting tax burdens away from the well-off and toward lower-income members of society while harming US workers and industries, inviting retaliation from trading partners, and worsening international relations.
- How will Trumponomics work out?
Olivier Blanchard broke down some of President-elect Trump's economic policies, including tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation and explained that the policies may have disappointing results but won't be the catastrophe some economists claim, if the Federal Reserve sticks to its mandate.
Watch the PIIE Insider LIVE episode on this piece here or listen wherever you get your podcasts.
- China's stimulus measures to boost troubled economy may fall short
In October, Tianlei Huang warned that China's central bank's interest rate cuts and other policy moves could be ineffective—"pushing on a string"—at a time of weak credit demand, as monetary easing during a downturn does not always work as well as tightening during a boom.
Data Disclosure
This publication does not include a replication package.
