Body
The economic news is grim the world over, but is it equally grim everywhere?
Based on the latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (January 2009), we estimate which country groups and countries are expected to see the greatest decline in growth during the crisis compared to their precrisis performance.
In the table below, we compare the average of the WEO estimate for growth in 2008 and forecast for 2009 (column 3)—which we assume will be the crisis years—with the average growth rate in the precrisis period of 2005–2007 (column 2). The last column scales the estimated decline against the precrisis performance—the percent of precrisis growth reduced by the crisis. The top panel provides these estimates for groups and the bottom panel for the large countries in the WEO forecasts. Groups and individual countries are ranked by the magnitude of decline that they are likely to suffer as a result of the crisis.
The euro area is likely to be most affected by the crisis with a decline of 121 percent relative to its precrisis growth. Among the individual countries, Italy and Japan will be the hardest hit, while Brazil, China, and India—three large, emerging-market countries—are likely to be most resilient in the face of the global downturn.
|
Annual growth rate in percent
|
||||
|
|||||
Economic Size (GDP, current $, bn)
|
Pre-crisis
|
Crisis
|
Decline in growth
|
Decline in growth (% of pre-crisis)
|
|
(avg. 2005-07)
|
(avg.2008-09)
|
||||
Country Group Name 1 |
A
|
B
|
A-B
|
(A-B)/A
|
|
|
|||||
Euro area |
12,182
|
2.3
|
-0.5
|
2.8
|
121.6
|
Advanced economies |
39,188
|
2.7
|
-0.5
|
3.2
|
118.3
|
Newly industrialized Asian economies |
1,722
|
5.3
|
-0.9
|
6.2
|
116.9
|
European Union |
16,906
|
2.9
|
-0.3
|
3.1
|
108.7
|
Other advanced economies |
4,527
|
4.4
|
-0.3
|
4.6
|
105.7
|
Central and Eastern Europe |
1,832
|
6.2
|
1.4
|
4.8
|
77.2
|
Commonwealth of Independent States |
1,696
|
7.8
|
2.8
|
5.0
|
64.3
|
World |
54,585
|
4.8
|
2.0
|
2.9
|
59.7
|
Western Hemisphere |
3,609
|
5.3
|
2.9
|
2.4
|
46.1
|
Emerging and developing economies |
15,397
|
7.7
|
4.8
|
2.9
|
37.6
|
Africa: Sub-Sahara |
856
|
6.6
|
4.5
|
2.1
|
32.3
|
Developing Asia |
5,761
|
9.6
|
6.7
|
3.0
|
30.9
|
ASEAN-5 |
1,080
|
5.8
|
4.1
|
1.8
|
30.6
|
Africa |
1,100
|
6.1
|
4.3
|
1.8
|
29.2
|
Middle East |
1,400
|
5.8
|
5.0
|
0.8
|
13.6
|
|
|||||
Country Name |
|
|
|
|
|
Italy |
2,105
|
1.3
|
-1.4
|
2.6
|
205.1
|
Japan |
4,382
|
2.1
|
-1.5
|
3.6
|
167.6
|
United Kingdom |
2,804
|
2.6
|
-1.1
|
3.7
|
139.8
|
Germany |
3,321
|
2.1
|
-0.6
|
2.7
|
128.8
|
France |
2,594
|
2.1
|
-0.3
|
2.4
|
114.4
|
United States |
13,808
|
2.6
|
-0.4
|
2.9
|
113.6
|
South Korea |
970
|
4.8
|
-0.6
|
5.3
|
111.5
|
Canada |
1,436
|
2.9
|
-0.3
|
3.1
|
108.6
|
Spain |
1,440
|
3.7
|
-0.3
|
4.0
|
106.7
|
Mexico |
1,023
|
3.7
|
0.8
|
3.0
|
80.0
|
Russia |
1,290
|
7.3
|
2.8
|
4.6
|
62.3
|
India |
1,101
|
9.4
|
6.2
|
3.2
|
34.2
|
China |
3,280
|
11.3
|
7.9
|
3.5
|
30.5
|
Brazil |
1,314
|
4.1
|
3.8
|
0.3
|
7.5
|
|
|||||
1. Country Group Composition. |