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In preparing for a class, I stumbled on an interesting archive of documents posted on the website of the National Security Archive. The NSA does the great service of declassifying documents through the Freedom of Information Act process, which I can testify is clunky, slow and time-consuming. The documents were collated and posted by Robert Wampler in 2006 with useful commentary.
The documents are sometimes frustrating because important material is redacted. Moreover, they are interesting as much for what the US was thinking than for the actual information. Nonetheless, some tidbits:
- A 1993 CIA assessment links the new hardline on the nuclear question to succession issues between Kims I and II, and testing the mettle of Kim Jr. in particular.
- A surprising number of the documents deal with the food issue, and a surprising amount of those memos are redacted. A March 1996 assessment says that the Chinese had finally weighed in with a big food shipment. An April 1996 INR assessment has a paragraph entitled “More Food Now” which is redacted. But there is open discussion in early 1996 of the fact that famine warning indicators are appearing; discussion included how and whether to link food aid to the talks, an ongoing issue as we have recently noted. Aid issues continue to preoccupy the administration, with a revealing INR assessment in March of 1998 titled “Countdown to Starvation?” Umm, a little late…
- A CIA panel of experts concluded in 1997 that North Korea was likely to collapse within five years, citing the apparently irreversible economic decline the country was experiencing. Interestingly, State assessments fell the opposite way saying that the North would survive. (Even with our pessimism, things were clearly a lot worse then than now. Andrew Lankov, in the Asia Times, outlines the “things are not that bad” line, at least for Pyongyang.)
- The gaming of “endgames” involved consideration of a limited North Korean invasion of the South, a coup attempt and ensuing civil war in the North, and peaceful unification under South Korea's leadership.
- A 1998 State Information Memorandum on economic recovery is heavily redacted, but notes the stirring of reform discussions.
Sound familiar? As we always say, plus ça change…
