China Chart of the Week: The IMF's Falling Forecast for China
In April 2011, the IMF forecast the Chinese economy would grow at a yearly rate of 9.46% in 2015. That projection has now been cut by nearly one third (2.7 percentage points), with January's forecast for this year at 6.8%. The chart below shows that growth forecasts for both 2015 and 2016 have been consistently revised downward each year the World Economic Outlook was released since 2011.
A “back of the envelope” calculation tell us that, if the Chinese economy produces goods and services valued at $11 trillion, then a three percentage point reduction in GDP means $330 billion less will be produced than the IMF had expected just four years ago. That is more than the total yearly production of Greece.
Jan Zilinsky is a research analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Follow him on Twitter at @janzilinsky.