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Debt sustainability and the range of multiple equilibria

Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Gonzalo Huertas (International Monetary Fund; former PIIE) and Pedro Martínez-Bruera (International Monetary Fund)

Working Paper 26-17
Photo Credit: IMAGO/Westlight via Reuters
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The authors characterize the size of the range of multiple equilibria in sovereign debt markets. They show that the nature of the equilibrium depends crucially on the degree of uncertainty, which they formalize first as uncertainty about primary balances and later as uncertainty about the fiscal feedback rule. For low uncertainty, the range can be large, but it becomes smaller as uncertainty becomes larger. If uncertainty is large enough, the multiplicity disappears. The interest rate is then unique and becomes a continuous function of the debt level. Interpreting the source of an increase in the interest rate in actual situations is difficult and complicates the use of intervention by central banks.

Data Disclosure:

This publication does not include a replication package.

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