Globalization is not dying. It is being rebuilt. When the United States and China weaponized trade in 2025, many feared the collapse of the global economy. Markets plunged, supply chains fractured, and policymakers spoke openly of economic warfare. But the collapse never came.
In his new book, World War Trade, published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Richard Baldwin argues that the real story is not the conflict between superpowers but how the rest of the world responded. Through quiet restraint, strategic adaptation, and a wave of new trade agreements, countries representing the majority of global commerce prevented a 1930s-style breakdown. What has emerged is a new kind of globalization: less centralized, less US-led, but still deeply interconnected—a system shaped not by design but by the self-organizing forces of politics, economics, and necessity.
Following his presentation of his new book, Baldwin and Mary E. Lovely discuss new ways to understand global trade in an age of rivalry and a clear-eyed view of what comes next.
WELCOME REMARKS
Adam S. Posen
President, PIIE
MODERATOR
Mary E. Lovely
Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, PIIE
PRESENTER
Richard Baldwin
Nonresident Senior Fellow, PIIE