About
Event Summary
Major events that marked the world stage in the past decade—such as US-China trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—have brought geopolitics to the forefront of international economic policymaking. This conference, organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and the World Trade Organization (WTO), explores this theme through a series of engaging discussions.
This one-day conference aims to achieve two objectives. First, provide a forum for discussing theoretical and empirical frameworks that international organizations can use in their analysis of the impact of geopolitics on international trade and finance. Second, enhance dialog between economists and decision makers to better understand what the objectives are—economic and noneconomic—and pinpoint what the optimal tools to achieve them could be.
Schedule
Monday October 21, 2024
Session 1: Impact of geopolitics on international trade
How is geopolitics changing trade and foreign direct investment?
- Chair: Ralph Ossa (WTO)
- Presenters:
- Ana Aguilar (BIS): scenario analysis based on production networks and nearshoring
- Eddy Bekkers (WTO): fragmentation of trade flows as well as data flows
- Discussants:
- Richard Baldwin (PIIE)
- Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)
Session 2: Impact of geopolitics on international finance
How is geopolitics changing cross-border portfolio and banking flows?
- Chair: Hyun Song Shin (BIS)
- Presenters:
- Goetz von Peter (BIS): cross-border flows and official sector liquidity
- Andrea Filipo Presbitero (IMF): geopolitics and financial fragmentation
- Discussants:
- Linda Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
- Arvind Krishnamurthy (Stanford Graduate School of Business)
Session 3: Interactions between the impacts on trade and finance
How is geopolitics changing the financing of trade and, more broadly, interactions between trade and finance?
- Chair: Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
- Presenters:
- Hyun Song Shin (BIS): global value chains and working capital
- Marc Auboin (WTO) and Susan M. Lund (International Finance Corporation): WTO and IFC joint work on trade finance gaps
- Discussants:
- Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (Federal Reserve Board)
- Nicolas Véron (PIIE)
Session 4: Panel discussion on policy implications and solutions
What do economists need to know from policymakers, and what do policymakers need from economists? How can economic tools achieve noneconomic objectives?
- Moderator: Andréa M. Maechler (BIS)
- Presenters:
- Emily Blanchard (Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth)
- Sabine Weyand (European Commission) TBC
- Mary E. Lovely (PIIE)
- Yeo Han-Koo (PIIE)
- Takatoshi Ito (Columbia Business School)
Closing remarks
Deniz Igan (BIS)