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In an interview with the Korea Herald, Stephan Haggard touches on a number of themes in recent posts on the blog. With Washington unable to move, the initiative on the peninsula is only likely to come from Seoul, assuming, that is, that Pyongyang has any interest. Lifting the post-Cheonan sanctions―although unpopular on the right―would be one way to test the waters with surprisingly little risk; the regime either is serious about its efforts to open to foreign investment and trade or not.
Another theme is whether the effort to diversify to Russia is likely to offset growing dependence on China. Don’t hold your breath; the initiatives look political as much as commercial to us and if Russia wants to throw money at North Korea, we can only say “good luck with that.”
The entire interview can be found here.
