The monthly jobs report shows how immigration policy is changing the US labor market. Stricter border enforcement starting mid-2024, followed by increased deportations and other changes to immigration policy in 2025, have caused the US immigration rate to fall. While solid data on the current immigration rate are not yet available, the impact on the labor market is visible.
Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year, according to the Labor Department’s nonfarm payroll survey data. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, and several other industries in manufacturing, technology, and services. Job growth in the rest of the private sector remains positive, though it is slowing. Prior to the slowdown in immigration, job growth in relatively immigrant-reliant industries was similar to that in the rest of the private sector.
The other half of the jobs report—the household survey—fills in the picture. It does not appear that a decline in immigration has boosted native-born employment: The native-born unemployment rate has increased in 2025.
The household survey also shows a huge decline in the foreign-born employed population and a sharp increase in the native-born employed population. However, these trends are misleading. The reported decline in the foreign-born population is implausibly large, and much of it could be explained by falling survey response rates among the foreign born. The reported increase in the native-born population, and the native-born employed population, is purely a statistical artifact: By construction, population totals in the household survey must equal pre-determined Census estimates, so any reported swing in the foreign-born population is offset by an opposite swing in the native-born population.
Data Disclosure
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