Outright trade war between the world's two largest economies would be devastating to the working people of both countries, as well as destructive to the future of the entire world economy. The costs of conflict between China and the United States far outweigh the current causes of dispute in their economic relationship. These costs would be both direct, in terms of short-term losses of growth and employment, and indirect, in terms of long-term damage to the world trading system, diminishing investment and efficiency. There are points of genuine dispute between the United States and China over their economic interaction. Even if their economic significance is often exaggerated, these are legitimate points of contention and have to be addressed in a constructive manner. The analyses in this volume aim to contribute to a more reality-based consideration of both countries' enlightened self-interests, which would yield progress on points of dispute in a manner consistent with keeping the world economy open for business.
Introduction: Economic Truths Towards Resolving China-US Trade Conflict
Ha Jiming and Adam S. Posen
1 Can China and the United States Avoid a Full-Blown Trade War?
2 The China-US Trade Conflict and Its Impact
Ha Jiming and Deng Yangmei
3 Facts Speak Louder than Words: Review of and Prospects for China's Foreign Exchange Policy
4 China's Economic Transformation: Progress and Gaps
Zhang Bin and Zou Jingxian
Data disclosure: The data underlying this analysis are available here.