Policy Implications of Sustained Low Productivity Growth

The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a major research conference on the "Policy Implications of Sustained Low Productivity Growth" on November 9, 2017. Conference organizers Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Adam S. Posen assembled a group of leading policy economists to tackle the question of what the productivity slowdown would mean for the advanced economies over the next two decades, in terms of current institutions.

Agenda

Opening
Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)

Panel 1: Public Debt and Taxation

Moderator: William R. Cline, PIIE

Presenters:
Neil Mehrotra, Brown University, "Implications of Low Productivity Growth for Debt Sustainability" [presentation]
Karen Dynan, Harvard University and PIIE, "Implications for Tax Policy of Lower Trend Productivity Growth" [paper] [presentation]

Discussant: Elena Duggar, Moody's Investors Service [presentation]

Panel 2: International Aspects

Moderator: Monica de Bolle, PIIE

Presenters:
Filippo di Mauro, National University of Singapore and CompNet, "From Micro to Macro: Firm Heterogeneity and Export Competitiveness" [with Gianmarco Ottaviano] [presentation]
Jose De Gregorio, Universidad de Chile and PIIE, "Productivity in Emerging Market Economies: Slowdown or Stagnation?" [paper] [presentation]

Discussant: Olivier Jeanne, Johns Hopkins University and PIIE [presentation]

Panel 3: Social Protection and Health

Moderator: Mary Lovely, PIIE

Presenters:
Axel Börsch-Supan, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging, "The Impact of a Productivity Slowdown on Pension Systems in Europe" [paper] [presentation]
Louise Sheiner, Brookings Institution, "The Effects of Low Productivity Growth on Fiscal Sustainability" [paper] [presentation]

Discussant: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) [presentation]

Panel 4: Wages and Inequality

Moderator: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, PIIE

Presenters:
Jason Furman, Harvard University and PIIE, "Do the Productivity Slowdown and the Inequality Increase Have a Common Cause?" [with Peter Orszag] [presentation]
Lawrence H. Summers, Harvard University, "Productivity and Pay: Is the Link Broken?" [with Anna Stansbury] [paper] [presentation]

Discussant: Jaana Remes, McKinsey Global Institute

Panel 5: The Politics of Low Productivity

Moderator: Adam S. Posen

Presenter: Daniel Drezner, Tufts University, "Why American Capital Will Only Swipe Right: The Political Economy of Secular Stagnation" [presentation]

Discussant: Anna Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research