Professor Charles Goodhart discussed his new book with Manoj Pradhan, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, at a PIIE virtual event with Adam S. Posen on September 24, 2020.
The book’s main thesis is that trends in demography and globalization, especially the stunning rise of China combining both, has greatly weakened labor bargaining power and led to the subsequent trend in disinflation, inequality, and falling interest rates. But these demographics and globalization trends are now reversing; and so labor bargaining power will rise again, bringing with it more inflation, less inequality and rising interest rates. The coronavirus pandemic will only accelerate this reversal, so the book stands in sharp contrast to the mainstream view of '"ower for longer."
Charles Goodhart, CBE , FBA , is Professor Emeritus of Banking and Finance with the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics (LSE), having previously been its deputy director (1987–2005). Until retirement in 2002, he had been the Norman Sosnow Professor of Banking and Finance at LSE since 1985. Previously, he had worked at the Bank of England for 17 years as a monetary adviser, becoming a chief adviser in 1980. He was appointed an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at the time of its founding in 1997.
Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macro, an independent macroeconomic research firm. He was previously managing director at Morgan Stanley and led the Global Economics team there. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2005 after serving on the faculty of the George Washington University and the State University of New York. Pradhan specializes in quantitative macroeconomics, emerging markets and global economics. He has a PhD in economics from the George Washington University and a Masters in Finance from the London Business School.