Senior Fellow David J. Stockton presented the US and global economic outlook at the Peterson Institute’s semiannual Global Economic Prospects session held September 29, 2016. Political outcomes and uncertainties are likely to shape forecasts more than is normally the case. In the United States, the looming presidential and congressional elections involve a variety of permutations that could yield differing macroeconomic implications.
Adam S. Posen, the Institute’s president, explored the interaction of political outcomes and potential fiscal policy, the contingent monetary responses, and the implications for the shifting G-7 policy mix. US-China relations could also be affected, perhaps substantially so, by the outcome of the US elections, with accompanying ramifications for the global economy.
Rory MacFarquhar, visiting fellow, discussed post-election prospects for US-China relations, and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow, focused on the challenging political economy of Europe and its impact on the European macro policy mix.