Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2025

PIIE president Adam S. Posen introduces the event.

Karen Dynan, nonresident senior fellow at PIIE, presents her forecast for the US and global economies, focusing on the risks and consequences of the new US administration’s rapidly evolving policies. These major policy shifts—particularly the introduction of new tariffs—are weighing on activity and fueling a high level of uncertainty across economies.

Chad P. Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at PIIE, provides an update on US trade policy and the international response, highlighting the difference between the first and second Trump administration’s tariff actions. He says moving forward, trade volumes, tax burdens, and supply chains are what to keep an eye on.

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, nonresident senior fellow at PIIE, analyzes the trajectory of Europe's accelerating rearmament, focusing on the fiscal implications for national governments and EU institutions.

Adam S. Posen, president of PIIE, asserts that whether or not the United States faces a recession in the future, an increase in inflation is inevitable, and that policies attempting to close off the US economy could result in negative supply shocks that reduce real income. The bottom line, he says, is that it can happen here. Self-inflicted policy wounds create negative feedback loops.

Adam S. Posen moderates questions after the presentations.