Economic growth, inflation, and interest rates have declined in Asia, just as they have in the United States and Europe. Sustaining Economic Growth in Asia explores the relevance to several Asian economies of the diagnosis known as “secular stagnation.” Leading experts on the region discuss the fiscal and monetary policy challenges of reviving growth without generating domestic financial imbalances. The essays on innovation, demographics, spillovers, and various policy proposals are accompanied by case studies focusing on Japan, South Korea, China, India, and Indonesia.
The data underlying this analysis are available for download here [690.4 MB zip file].
1 Introduction: Toward a New Long-Term Growth Model for Asia
Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Thomas Helbling, Adam S. Posen, and Changyong Rhee
2 Secular Stagnation: History and Reality
3 Is Asia at Risk of Growing Old before Becoming Rich?
Serkan Arslanalp, Jaewoo Lee, Minsuk Kim, Umang Rawat, Jacqueline Pia Rothfels, Jochen Markus Schmittmann, and Qianqian Zhang
4 Invention, Productivity, and the Evolution of East Asia's Innovation Systems
Lee Branstetter and Namho Kwon
Comment: Jong-Wha Lee
5 Secular Stagnation and Asia: International Transmission and Policy Spillovers
6 Getting Out of Secular Stagnation: Turning Japanese May Be a Good Thing Now
Adam S. Posen
7 Secular Stagnation and the Labor Market in Japan
Comment: Jonathan Woetzel
8 Declining Potential Growth in Korea
Dongchul Cho and Kyooho Kwon
9 A New Macroeconomic Policy Framework for Prudence and Higher-Quality Growth in China
10 Do India's Exports Reflect the New Normal?
Prachi Mishra and Siddhartha Nath
Comment: Kenneth Kang
11 How Has Indonesia Fared in the Age of Secular Stagnation?
Comment: Muhamad Chatib Basri
12 Twenty-Five Years of Global Imbalances
13 Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for Sustained Growth in Asia
Joseph E. Gagnon and Philip Turner
14 Monetary Policy in the New Mediocre
Rania Al-Mashat, Kevin Clinton, Benjamin Hunt, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Hou Wang, and
15 Avoiding a New Mediocre in Asia: What Can Fiscal Policy Do?
Ana Corbacho, Dirk Muir, Masahiro Nozaki, and Edda Zoli
16 Global Imbalances and the Trade Slowdown: Implications for Asia
Comment: Davin Chor
17 Toward a "New" Asian Model