Remembering Gary Hufbauer

You can locate the remarkable professional legacy of Gary Clyde Hufbauer in scores, maybe hundreds, of books, papers, blog postings, and presentations at the Peterson Institute for International Economics for more than 40 years. But his greatest impact here was the friendship, warmth, mentorship, and lessons he imparted to countless colleagues over those decades.

After Gary died this month, at the age of 87, I talked to many colleagues about that professional and personal legacy. Adam Posen, president of PIIE, wrote that Gary was "an extraordinary scholar and person" whose work was a pillar of the Institute's reputation. Gary, he said, embodied "the spirit of the Institute—intellectual engagement, passion to understand and improve the policy world, independence, collegiality, and a deep commitment to bringing economic research to bear on the world's most pressing policy challenges."

Gary was an expert on subsidies, sanctions, trade and tax policy, and much more. He was also the kind of colleague who could persuade you to jump out of an airplane with him. I'll get to that in a minute.

First, I asked Jeff Schott what it was like to work with Gary for almost a half century. They started as part of the team at the US Treasury negotiating subsidies agreements for the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in the 1970s. "I felt like I was always learning from him," Jeff says. "His writing style and analytical style were so clean. He could always get down to the core essence of any issue."

In the early 1980s Gary and Jeff wrote their book Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, published by PIIE, in which they came up with "nine commandments" on using sanctions, calling for, among other things, working with allies and focusing on limited targets. "We were going to have ten but there was a copyright problem," Jeff said.

Carla Hills got to know Gary when she was US Trade Representative, in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. "Gary was unique," she told me. "He had all the data in his head all the time. He could tell you what the average homeowner will gain or loss of trade off the top of his head."

Outlining the benefits of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in the 1990s "was a tough position to take," she said. "Labor unions were not in favor, the agriculture community was not in favor. Gary's essays were important in persuading people. But it was never about him. He was the most modest man of extreme brilliance and training. He was never one to say, 'you have to take my view.' He was interested in talking and listening."

I interviewed Gary for a video when he retired in 2018. He recalled that as a student at Harvard, he was influenced by two professors, Gottfried Haberler, a libertarian free-market economist, and Seymour Harris, a Keynesian who had advised President John F. Kennedy. "I got very excited about their work and did my senior thesis on balance-of-payments issues," Gary said. Then he studied at Cambridge University and returned to his beloved southwest at the University of New Mexico as a professor before joining the Treasury Department as a consultant on payment imbalances.  

C. Fred Bergsten, a young official running international economics at Treasury in the Jimmy Carter years, invited Gary to become a deputy assistant secretary for trade and investment. Fred founded the Institute for International Economics (now the Peterson Institute) in the early 1980s, recruiting Gary again. "I was just delighted to join him," Gary said.

"Gary was one of the most intellectually curious and creative people I have ever known," Fred told me. "He picked up new topics quickly, with great analysis, but didn't shy from controversy. He was willing to go out on a limb and make estimates and projections even when he knew they weren't going to pass muster for some PhD economists."

The best examples, cited by Fred, were Gary's "big number" of $1 trillion in gains to the US economy from trade expansion, updated to more than $2 trillion in 2017. Also controversial were Hufbauer and Schott's estimates of potential job losses and gains from NAFTA. "The economic purists argued, "How could there be job losses when we're at full employment?" recalled Fred. "But the critics were confusing macro and micro economics. Those estimates by Gary were vitally necessary to inform policy debates."

As a mentor and champion of young people, it would be hard to imagine anyone more inspiring than Gary. "For all Gary's accolades and remarkable and impactful career, what stands out to me was his kindness, humility, and good humor toward his research analysts," says Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs, a former research analyst who now works at the Congressional Research Service.  "He never hesitated to elevate and challenge young professionals in a way that made them feel as though they too had meaningful contributions to give."

Daniel Rosen, founder of the Rhodium Group consultancy, told me: "Gary was my professor at Georgetown, and he brought me in as his RA [research assistant]. Gary taught me how to write. He was an absolutely relentless editor and stylist. When I talk about people I've mentored as a professor and at Rhodium, I say Gary Hufbauer was the one who taught me how to do this."

"Over the years, I learned so much from him," writes Anabel González, vice president at the Inter-American Development Bank. "His intellectual depth, extraordinary expertise, pragmatism, creativity, and clarity of thought were truly exceptional."

"Gary Hufbauer was a giant in the trade world and a critical component with Jeff Schott to PIIE's early success," writes Douglas Irwin, the distinguished historian of trade. "I studied the history of US trade policy, but he lived much of it, and he had a great sense for both the economics and politics of trade."

Here are some other recollections I have gathered in recent days. Yuan (Salina) Liu, a former research analyst: "His intellectual depth, extraordinary expertise, pragmatism, creativity, and clarity of thought were truly exceptional. [He was] a wonderful human being and always a pleasure to engage with." Ye Zhang, a former research analyst: "Gary was incredibly generous with his time and extremely patient with his RAs. His feedback on the blog drafts was always full of colorful highlights. I would mark my questions in yellow, and he would patiently answer every single one in green, no matter how trivial."

And these from other PIIE colleagues:

William R. Cline called Gary "a treasured colleague." Monica de Bolle recalls that Gary never failed to jokingly call her Cassandra because of her pessimism about Latin American economies. Ángel Ubide called him "a lovely person and great colleague, always with a smile." Inu Manak said he was "a major source of inspiration for my research on North American integration…. It's hard to imagine the world without him." Joseph Gagnon: "Gary was always a cheerful colleague, even when his economic views were sometimes (not always!) pessimistic." Arvind Subramanian called Gary "an absolute giant." Mary Lovely: "One of the greats." Cecilia Malmstrom: "A legend."

Bob Davis, veteran economics correspondent at the Wall Street Journal: "I considered him…one of the most honest people in Washington—not afraid to make a call and not afraid to admit to a mistake."

But skydiving?

Gary really did love to jump out of planes—with a parachute. Two of his research analysts, Eujin (Jin) Jung and Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu, bravely joined him in 2017 for the drive out to Warrenton, VA, where he waited for the weather to clear while going through his research papers. "That certainly gives you an idea of how dedicated he was to his work," Lucy said. Jin and Lucy did their jumps first with an instructor, followed by Gary in his red jump suit. 

Barbara Kotschwar, a 20-something research assistant for Gary in the 1990s, and now director of economic development at the Organization of American States (OAS), says jumping with Gary "was one of the most surreal experiences of my life…. Watching my boss correct a report and then take a swan dive out of an airplane is something I'll never forget."