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While on pause, we are posting commentary that Marc Noland and Steph Haggard are writing on the Korean peninsula. The latest edition is an analysis by Stephan Haggard at NK News on the new maritime sanctions. As sanctions tighten, ship-to-ship transfers and other forms of smuggling will go up, not down, as the benefits for smugglers rise. Moreover, the sanctions are not self-enforcing; much will depend on Chinese cooperation in seizing ships in violation of the sanctions. That said, the sanctions are likely to take yet another bite out of North Korean trade and raise other issues. Will the United States move towards an embargo if this round of sanctions does not have an effect? And now that North Korea has signaled a willingness to talk, how do South Korea and the United States jointly exploit their leverage?
