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Last month the Asan Institute for Public Policy released a study measuring South Korean public opinion of the United States and China. The report tracks changes from polls Asan conducted in 2013 and 2014. A key take-away from the study is that South Koreans believe the U.S. is and will continue to stay powerful even as China’s influence grows. Counter to some perceptions of American political influence declining in the world, there has been an increase in South Koreans’ perception of the U.S. as the undisputed superpower in global politics (2013 poll: 77%; 2014 poll: 82%; 2015 poll: 85%). When asked who the global economic superpower is the numbers for the U.S. were a little lower (2013 poll: 61%; 2014 poll: 65%; 2015 poll: 64%). However, 71% of Koreans believe that China will be the future global economic superpower, a considerable gap between the only 30% who believe it currently holds this position. Regarding who will be the future global politics superpower, 48% chose the U.S. while 40% chose China.
When asked which factors make either the U.S. or China a superpower the reasons were different. For the U.S. the important factors were its large economy, R&D spending, and military power. China, on the other hand, was perceived to be a superpower due to its massive population and territory.
An interesting finding in the study was that in 2013, 57% of South Koreans approved of America’s international leadership, while only 29% approved of China’s. In the 2015 survey approval of U.S. leadership jumped to 72% and China’s to 52%. So both countries saw large growth in perceptions of their global leadership. It appears South Koreans aren’t seeing any U.S.-China power struggle to define international norms as zero sum for their interests. It’s important to note that these results demonstrated generational cleavages. South Koreans in their 20s and 30s were particularly enthusiastic about U.S. global leadership while those older than 50 favored China. When asked about their general favorability towards the U.S. and China, the U.S. has stayed about the same while China has grown slightly since the 2013 polls, but the U.S. is still in the lead (see graph below). When asked which country South Korea should strengthen ties with-- either the U.S. or China-- in 2014 the U.S. received 60% of the votes while China got 25%, and in 2015 the U.S. got 59% and China 31%. Once again, the younger generation leans heavily towards the United States.
These results suggest that South Koreans perceive China’s influence to be growing but not necessarily at great expense to the United States, especially when the whole basket of issues come into play. And South Koreans still believe the U.S. should play an important role on the Korean Peninsula. A separate Asan Report from 2014 found that 93% of South Koreans believed the U.S.-ROK alliance to be a necessity. With the younger generation particularly positive about U.S. influence, it looks like American power (in various manifestations) may be around for a while in South Korea even as China continues to grow in political and economic influence.
Source: Asan Report: Measuring a Giant - South Korean Perceptions of the United States, April 2015
