Why did (almost) nobody see inflation coming and what’s next?

Jason Furman (PIIE)

Jason Furman examines why US forecasters got their 2021 inflation predictions so badly wrong, arguing many of the developments in 2021 that fueled inflation should have been predictable given economic conditions. He anticipates inflation to remain elevated in 2022 as demand continues to outpace supply.  Video recorded at the American Economic Association's (AEA) Allied Social Science Associations 2022 virtual annual meeting.

Video used with permission from the American Economic Association.
Full event information is available here.

For more analysis of US inflation and how the Federal Reserve should respond, watch Jason Furman's presentation and discussion with PIIE President Adam S. Posen.