Note: This transcript is auto generated and lightly edited.
SHAYAN: Yes, indeed. We are indeed facing an emergency. And as a matter of fact, we've been facing an emergency for the last few decades. Unfortunately, we haven't done enough to combat that emergency, and that has now culminated in the form of avian influenza spreading all over the world.
MONICA: Welcome to Policy for the Planet, a podcast exploring the global response to the climate crisis. We'll unravel the complex tradeoffs of different policy choices to steer us toward sustainable solutions and public well-being.
I'm Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Welcome to the conversation.
Climate change is interacting with migration patterns, the environment and other factors, contributing to the spread of infectious diseases. This interplay threatens public human health, but has climate change aggravated the spread of bird flu, leading to higher egg prices and shortages?
Joining to shed light on these issues is Dr. Shayan Sharif, interim vice-president of research and innovation and professor of immunology at the University of Guelph in Ontario. Shayan's research focuses on poultry diseases, such as avian influenza. He is dedicated to developing innovative vaccines to control these infections.
Shayan has led the Poultry Health Research Network in Canada. It collaborates with experts from academia, government, and industry. More recently, he was instrumental in establishing a translational health initiative at his University, bridging veterinary and human health research to translate laboratory discoveries into treatments for both animals and humans.
So, Dr. Sharif, Shayan, welcome to Policy for the Planet. It's a pleasure to have you on the show. And I have been very, very much looking forward to this season. So welcome, welcome.
SHAYAN: Thank you very much, Monica, for having me on the show.
MONICA: So let's jump right in. So I wanted to start off by asking you a very general question about urbanization, human activities, natural habitats, climate change, and viruses. So, jumping into all of that, we know that urbanization and human activities are encroaching on natural habitats of species that harbor viruses such as bird and avian flu. And obviously these viruses do cause disease in us, as we know from what's been going on. And we also know climate change is aggravating this problem. So the first question to you: are we really facing an emergency?
SHAYAN: Yes, indeed. We are indeed facing an emergency. And as a matter of fact, we've been facing an emergency for the last few decades. Unfortunately, we haven't done enough to combat that emergency, and that has now culminated in the form of avian influenza spreading all over the world.
When you think about avian influenza and the last three years of what we've seen, transpire before our eyes, it's been something completely unprecedented. I can't really put all the blame on organization. But, you know, the fact of the matter is that there's now more opportunities for new species being introduced into new areas, new territories, species that would have never really had a chance to, to see each other, interact with each other.
Now they have those kinds of opportunities to interact with each other because of the fact as, human beings have become one of the forces that have really accelerated the process for, evolution of species in many shape and form. And obviously, climate change has also had an impact on the evolution of viruses and also evolution of species.
So we do actually see a lot of things happening right before our eyes. And hopefully, we can control things in the future. Otherwise, things could be going completely out of our control. Based on some assessments done not that long ago, actually, in the US, in the future, human beings are going to have to be exposed to a lot of other viruses that that we don't even know they exist.
They exist in far flung parts of the world. And because of precisely what you just mentioned, organization and the impacts of climate change, now we are going to be exposed more and more frequently to those new viruses. Those novel viruses. And the reality is that many of those exposures would be terminal exposures, meaning that there would be no outcomes in terms of infection or disease happening among humans or other species.
But can you imagine if you have hundreds of thousands of these exposures on a daily basis, or millions of them, on a on an annual basis? At the end of the day, there may be some viruses that could actually find a new host. They can cause infection in the new host, potentially cause mortality in the new host, and even spread from one host to another host or within a host population, they can spread quite rapidly.
So these are not necessarily just hypothetical situations. These situations, as we said before, are transpiring before our own eyes.
MONICA: Well, we saw that in that exact situation with COVID because COVID, the disease the virus causes COVID, SARS-CoV-2, was a novel virus, as in it infected humans for the first time, and when it first arose as a pandemic, we saw that happen.
So just jump jumping on the fact that you of course are an immunologist, I have a little bit of background in immunology, and I think it might be important for our listeners to understand that there is a difference between novel viruses and those that have been in circulation for a while when it comes to how they affect us and how we respond to them. Will you say a couple of words about that?
SHAYAN: I can probably, you know, give a lecture on that. And it's always so good, Monica, to, to work with, with a fellow immunologist. So you're precisely, explaining the situation very well. The reality is that when our body and our population have never seen a virus before, as a result of that, there's no, presence of, immune responses like antibody responses or cell mediated responses.
So we are essentially very naive and we are dealing with a naive population. So there is no herd immunity. And you know that herd immunity sometimes has been misused and abused and, and sometimes, you know, been used as part of misinformation and disinformation. But herd immunity, immunologically speaking, it does actually exist. And it does actually protect humans and other species against viruses that have had, that those populations have had some exposures to.
But in case of novel viruses, as you mentioned, SARS-CoV-2 or Sars-CoV-1, when it came back in 2003, human populations and other species, most of this, most of those populations had never been exposed to those SARS viruses. So as a result of that, there was no pre-formed immunity. And that was why the populations were so susceptible to catching the virus and showing clinical manifestations of the virus. In the case of H5n1 avian influenza viruses, humans have never seen avian influenza viruses in this shape and form.
So as a result of that, we are quite susceptible to H5n1. And that's why are quite concerned in the avian influenza area that if humans catch the virus, if the virus evolves itself, to the extent that it can infect humans… humans, by and large, we are susceptible to this virus because we've never seen it before.
So as a result of that, the virus can cause significant mortality if it does get capacity to capacity for human infection. But it hasn't really gained that capacity as of now. And that's why we need to keep the virus at bay, because if it does gain that capacity, we could be looking at a pandemic potential virus.
MONICA: Yeah. And just to qualify that, I mean presumably it would be somewhat easier to develop vaccines for avian flu or for H5n1 or for viruses of that particular strain, given that it's an influenza virus, so differently from the SARS viruses or the SARS-CoV-1 or SARS-CoV-2 viruses. But still, it's very problematic as you've underlined, correct?
SHAYAN: Yeah. Yes. Absolutely. It is a known vaccine to us. It's a vaccine that we've been producing. I'm referring to seasonal influenza vaccines. It's the type of vaccine that we've been producing for the last 4 or 5 decades, if not more.
So particularly in terms of technology, in terms of the process, etc.., it's not necessarily like a novel vaccine that one would have to embark upon for producing, with one very important proviso here. Now we are going to be looking at creating mass amounts of vaccine for mass vaccination. And that's really problematic because, you know, when you think about the usual standard ways of making vaccines for influenza, most of these technologies are dependent on virus production in eggs and then killing the virus.
And then, in fact, we're killing or inactivating it, combining it with adjuvants and creating a vaccine formulation. And the reality is that, you know, when you have avian influenza going around causing mortality in laying hens, then probably, you know, the source of, eggs for virus replication and virus production would also be limited. So it's not a very, I would say, you know, conducive, you know, situation for vaccine production against influenza period, let alone, you know, against avian influenza.
MONICA: Yeah. So there's a bigger underlying issue here that I think we'll come back to. But stepping back a bit and thinking about factors that have caused avian flu, or as it's commonly called, bird flu, to be a much bigger problem than it was 20 years ago because we know this virus has been in circulation for a while. It has popped up in humans before from avian transmission, or bird transmission, to humans, but it is a bigger problem now. What would you pinpoint or what would you say is the main factor that has led to this?
SHAYAN: I guess, you know, part of it really has to do with the biology of the virus and the fact that the virus is evolving and maybe, you know, it was just a random chance that the virus managed to gain capacity for transmission for significant amount of transmission within avian species and also between avian and mammalian species and also between mammalian species.
So this is completely unprecedented. I can say unequivocally that we've never seen anything like this before. Across the globe, in terms of the breadth and extent of, you know, what it can do, this is really something of global importance. In the past, people would have had, I would say, more local outbreaks.
And sometimes, you know, even I would say more than local outbreaks, you know, maybe part of a country would have been impacted. In 2014, for example, 2014, 2015, the US was impacted quite significantly, but it was quite localized. And I mean, Canada, for example, we didn't really experience the same amount of emissions as in the US, you had a lot more, mortality caused by the virus. But this is not even comparable to previous outbreaks.
Why is this? I think, you know, part of it really has to do with how the virus has evolved. The other part of it is that I think there are multitudes of other things that are happening.
You talk about encroachment on, animal habitats that could actually have had some impact on evolution of these virus and emergence of this virus. And we cannot really deny the importance of climate change on virus evolution. And there is indeed some evidence that, viruses are being impacted by climate change in the sense that there are multitude of factors that could come into play as to why climate change might have an impact.
One of which, for example, again, is the fact that species that are supposed to migrate… they don't migrate. So as a result of that, you might actually have species, some migratory species that could linger in places that they're not supposed to be lingering during wintertime. I can see a lot of Canada geese in my own backyard in wintertime, and wintertime in Canada is not actually supposed to be so mild that would harbor Canada geese.
So is it possible that because of these changes that have happened in the migratory patterns of, migratory birds, especially waterfowl, not piercing different profiles for avian influenza transmission, and I should just insert a very important fact here. Avian influenza virus is actually a virus that has a natural host or series of natural hosts. And those hosts are primarily waterfowl and some migratory birds.
So that's why when we talk about changes in the migratory pattern of those birds, specifically waterfowl, like ducks and geese, you do actually see some evidence or some connections between all of those things that are happening and emergence of, avian influenza viruses, more pathogenic and more transmissible avian influenza viruses.
MONICA: Yeah, that is very, very interesting. And I think that is often, well, not exactly overlooked, but people don't exactly focus on. So as you said the natural host are these waterfowl and these kind of birds. And if they're not migrating as usual because of climate issues and because warming of certain localities has changed their migratory behavior, that would of course change the way the virus spreads, and if I understand it from what you said, even the way the virus mutates, because it is staying in one place and it is possibly having access to other species or other ways of transmitting itself and possibilities for mutations that it otherwise might not have had if these patterns of migration had not changed.
So with that in mind, can we talk a little bit about zoonosis, which is something that often comes up. I think these days people know more about zoonosis post SARS-CoV-2 and post COVID than they did before. But nonetheless, as I understand it and from you as well, from things that you've said. Avian flu viruses are zoonotic, like other viruses and like other flu viruses, so they jump from one species to another. And that has been happening. You talked a little about human-to-human spread, but I want to ask you specifically, how close are we to that situation, to a situation where there is a sustained transmission among humans?
SHAYAN: So there is no evidence for human-to-human transmission as of yet. And we hope that it would remain as such. There is, however, evidence, both field evidence and also experimental evidence that this virus actually has capability for mammal to mammal transmission.
So, for example, in elephant seals, it is possible that mammal to mammal transmission had happened. Also, a couple of years ago in a mink farm in Spain, there was some evidence that, mink to mink transmission might have happened. There was, you know, like I said, there was some evidence, not necessarily very strong evidence.
I would say one of the strongest pieces of evidence provided was actually the work done here in Canada in the Winnipeg lab and in the province of Manitoba. It's a laboratory that is part of the Public Health Agency of Canada. And researchers in that lab showed quite conclusively that ferrets as a model and ferrets are extremely susceptible to influenza viruses, period.
Both avian and other types of influenza viruses, they did actually show that ferrets could become infected first. And secondly, they can transmit the virus from one ferret to another ferret, which I think, you know, was a significant warning sign for all of us in the field of avian influenza. The reality, however, is that that was two years ago.
The virus has shifted, has changed quite a lot over the last little while. And if every single day that goes by, the virus probably would have more opportunity for mutation, sometimes mutations would actually lead to less virulence. It could actually lose its ability to cause disease. Maybe it would actually gain capacity for more transmission and less virulence. You don't really know.
It's really like, like a random event. But the reality is, there's also the possibility and the chance that at some point of time, the virus could gain mutations that would allow the virus to attach to human cells. And that's really, you know, the trigger for the potential of a pandemic. We never want to see a virus gaining that kind of capacity.
And we can never predict whether or not, you know, it's going to gain that capacity. But every day, in my view, the virus takes one step towards that direction. It hasn't really shown any evidence at the moment. It can readily, infect human cells or be able to be transmitted or sustain transmission cycle within human populations.
But I would use the analogy of playing the Russian roulette. We are actually playing the Russian roulette with this virus. This virus is not like Covid 19 virus like SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 happened in a very short span of time. And then it starts with the pandemic. This virus has been around for, as you pointed out, Monica, for the last 20 years at least, predecessors of the virus have been around for the last 20 years.
MONICA: Yeah, absolutely. So as I said, I just want to switch gears back to some of the things that you've already mentioned.
So thinking about the impact of the avian flu on very, very serious lives, and notably food shortages, food prices. You've alluded to already the situation with eggs. I mean, we see that there is a shortage of eggs. The virus is affecting the production of eggs, it's affecting egg prices. We have seen that here in the United States and I'm sure you've seen that in Canada, and it's been showing up in other places. Can you give us more examples of how there is already an impact of avian flu on our lives even if the virus isn't yet transmitting in a sustained way to humans?
SHAYAN: Well, I think you know it. If it was having capacity for sustaining human to human transmission, then, you know, the situation would have been very different. This virus would have received a whole lot of attention.
MONICA: That's true.
SHAYAN: It's true. So unfortunately, it's not like that. But unfortunately, just because that issue is not also gaining the attention that it deserves, because, you know, it's a virus that has impacted our ecosystems. Our fragile ecosystems are being impacted, I would say sometimes irreversibly. When you think about the California condors, when you think about bald eagles-- you know, the symbol of power, the symbol of the United States.
And we thought up until four years ago that the eagles, birds of prey, they're kind of actually quite resistant to avian influenza viruses in general. But this virus actually proved us wrong. It proved us badly wrong. It could have actually killed many of the species that we would have never thought, you know, it could kill. So when I talk about ecosystems, you know, it goes far beyond just, you know, poultry industry or waterfowl.
It's actually been shown to infect somewhere between 480 to 500 different species of avians and multitudes, dozens of mammalian species, including marine mammals. So we can put all of that aside and say, who cares about the ecosystem or ecosystems? Let's just focus on humans and food consumption and food systems for humans. Monica, as you correctly pointed out, eggs have become one of the main sources of protein for people who were not able to find other sources of protein. And it doesn't actually have to be just in, you know, some areas of the world that's not well to do. It's actually happening in our own backyard.
So I think food security is a big thing across North America. It's just going to get more and more aggravated because of the fact that our fellow Americans and fellow Canadians don't have easy access to safe, nutritious food. And eggs have been one of the staples of, table for dinner, table for a lot of Canadians and Americans.
And now they don't have access to that. And in other parts of the world, we have actually seen even political uprisings, because of not just because of avian influenza, but because of the impact of avian influenza on the livelihood of people. So it is actually quite significant.
So I think, you know, food security is obviously a critical thing. It's terribly impacted by avian influenza. And it's, it's caused massive amount of damage to our poultry industry.
And when we think about poultry industry, we think that probably, you know, in a matter of a short amount of time, let's say, within a matter of days or weeks, they can regenerate what they need. But let's keep in mind, as when you have a flock, let's say 1 million, head of chicken flock in the U.S., let's say Minnesota or in Iowa.
The reality is that it would take at least a few months before they can replace those chickens, and then it would take approximately a few more weeks before they can come to lay. They can start laying eggs. So we're really talking about, you know, a good 4 or 5 months, maybe even more, that there would be no production.
That's why, you know, there is an impact. But aside from all of that, I'm also bringing up the issue of the impact on political potential political uprisings that have happened in some countries, like, for example, in the Middle East, there's one particular country that experienced massive amounts of outbreaks caused by other avian influenza viruses, not this particular one that we are experiencing here in Canada or in the U.S., and that actually led to a complete destruction of their egg laying industry.
And as a result of that, the prices went up. People didn't really have the source of protein that they needed. They started coming into the streets for protest, to protest the government to do something about it. And that actually led to a crackdown on those demonstrations. So I would say the impacts of avian influenza is far beyond, like I said, ecosystems, egg laying industry.
It's really our livelihoods that are impacted. And then to make matters worse, when you think about, you know, those individuals who are losing their livelihoods and I'm specifically talking birds, farmers, poultry producers, both in Canada and in the U.S., you have a lot of small producers and those small producers, that's their livelihood. And their livelihood has just been, you know, completely decimated by this virus.
So it does actually also have a lot of toll on, you know, their emotional and mental health.
MONICA: Yeah. Absolutely. And I'm glad that you raised the issue in the way you did, making the connection to politics and the political economy and the broader situation of a country that's affected by this. Because we have seen in developing countries how things that might happen to staple food items, in this case we're talking about eggs, but we've seen situations develop with tomatoes or something else, and how that in developing countries always does in the end have a political implication and an economic implication, but a political implication as well. You get turbulence, you get turmoil, you get a lot of street protests or things like that.
I think that it's of paramount importance that people understand that with viruses of this nature, like H5n1 and flu viruses as we've been discussing, these are issues that are not solely happening in developing countries now. There is a clear possibility that these things could happen in developed economies and countries in a much starker way.
SHAYAN: Yes, absolutely. And so I was actually just going to say that when you even look at, you know, the, the situation in, in the US and how some of the, you know, some of the aspects of avian influenza that have been, you know, have been exploited politically, it's quite interesting for us, you know, to, to see and to listen.
And probably you've heard about, you know, the ostrich farm in Canada that was, diagnosed with H5n1. And there's a lot of outcry from both Canada and the US and perhaps around the globe as to what Canada needs to do for those ostriches. So it can actually become quite politicized for, I would say, not necessarily the right reasons.
And so in the developing world it does happen. But I think, you know, it's to me and in my assessment completely unnecessary to politicize an issue like this. Absolutely,
MONICA: Absolutely. So, Shayan, one very difficult question and I think we do have to end on this note even if this is an unfortunate one. You've mentioned it already, you've talked about it a bit, and again, what should we be doing right now to contain the spread of avian flu or more commonly, bird flu?
SHAYAN: I do actually think that we need to take a really comprehensive and fulsome approach. I mentioned something about the one health approach. And what do I mean by a one health approach is that when you think about one health, it's essentially a triangle of human, animal and the environment.
We need to really take a comprehensive approach, look at the impacts of the environment. And what I mean by the environment is all of the above that we talked about encroachment of humans on animal habitats. It has to do with weather changes. It has to do with climate change. It's a multitude of things, you know, that culminate in changes in the environment that we live in, and we live in that environment with the animals that we share this environment with.
So we need to really take a comprehensive look at this. We should avoid politicizing things, and we should really look at this as a societal issue, as one of the grand challenges that humanity is facing and will be facing in the future. If it's not avian influenza, it's going to be another virus. If it's not, you know, Covid 19 is going to be Covid 25 or something along those lines, and we've got to be able to come up with solutions, solutions that are not just countries specific, but solutions that are global solutions.
And we need to act in a concerted manner as nations. And we need to ensure that humanity is going to be protected against not only these viruses, but also other things that are going to happen in the future. And we also need to protect our ecosystems. I'm not blaming anything on anyone, but the reality is that this thing has been going around for many years now for at least 4 or 5 years in terms of, you know, the most recent outbreaks that we've seen, I think it has actually wiped out quite a few number of, species in Canada and in the US and across the globe.
And the question is, what have we done in order to be able to combat that? In my view, I think, you know, first and foremost, we really need to go back and start thinking about what we do for surveillance in order to be able to identify new, emerging novel viruses. Number one. Number two, we need to identify risk associated with any of those new newly emerging viruses.
We also need to predict where and how these viruses are going to emerge. And then finally, we need to have a much better mitigation strategy for really keeping these viruses at bay. Vaccination as an example. It's not the be all and end all, but it's a tool in the toolbox that we need to really take a good look at it and make sure that we have a robust system for vaccine production and not only for vaccine production, but also for deployment of vaccines in the field if and when needed, or for humans if and when needed.
MONICA: Well, thank you. Thank you very much, Dr. Sharif. I think there are a lot of things to think about. I'd like to thank you for coming on the show.
SHAYAN: Thank you so much for having me.
MONICA: You've just finished an episode of Policy for the Planet — thanks for joining us! Don't forget to rate, review and subscribe.
Special thanks to Jennifer Owens and Alex Martin, our producers, Melina Kolb, our supervising producer, and Steve Weisman, our editorial adviser. This podcast is brought to you by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Learn more at piie.com.
Until next time, here's to creating meaningful impact. Stay motivated, stay curious.
