The Peterson Institute and Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) cohosted a conference "Global Financial Flows after the Great Recessio" on March 10, 2011. William Wansley of Booz Allen Hamilton and C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute, introduced the session. David Rubin of Booz Allen Hamilton gave the concluding remarks.
Financial flows to emerging market economies have traced a roller-coaster ride from a peak in 2007 to a sharp downswing in 2008–09, followed by strong recovery in 2010. The recent buoyant pace of financial flows has prompted new concerns about possibly excessive and destabilizing inflows, and spurred many including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revisit the question of appropriate prudential policies toward capital mobility. At the same time private flows seem increasingly to promise a new source of dynamism for growth in poorer countries previously dependent on official assistance.
The first conference session focused on flows to emerging market economies. Jeremy Lawson of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) presented the IIF's widely followed projections of capital flows. William R. Cline of the Peterson Institute presented the principal findings of his new book Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09. J.W. Rust of Booz Allen presented the BAH model for assessing financial sector risk in developing countries. Marcos Chamon of the IMF commented on the three presentations and outline the IMF's emerging new approach on prudential controls.
The second session addressed private financial flows to Africa. Two eminent figures from the private financial sector whose firms have invested extensively in Africa over the past decade, Antoine van Agtmael (who invented the term "emerging markets" at the World Bank in the 1980s) and James Harmon (former president of the US Export-Import Bank), evaluated the recent and prospective contribution of private foreign capital to the region's development. Todd Moss of the Center for Global Development provided perspective on the respective roles of official and private capital flows to Africa.
Book: A Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09
William R. Cline
|Welcome and Introduction||William Wansley, Senior Vice President, Booz Allen Hamilton
C. Fred Bergsten, Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics
|Session 1: Emerging Markets
|Moderator||C. Fred Bergsten, Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics|
|Panelists||Jeremy Lawson, Deputy Director for Global Macroeconomic Analysis, Institute of International Finance
Presentation: Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
William R. Cline, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
J. W. Rust, Senior Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton
|Discussant||Kristin J. Forbes, Professor of Management and Global Economics Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Presentation: Global Financial Flows after the Great Recession: Prospects and Policies
|Session 2: Private Capital and Development in Africa
|Moderator||Kathleen Sifer, Principal, Booz Allen Hamilton|
|Panelists||Antoine van Agtmael, Chairman, Emerging Markets Management, LLC
Presentation: Private Capital and Development in Africa
James Harmon, Chairman, Caravel Management, LLC
Todd Moss, Vice President for Programs and Senior Fellow Center for Global Development
|Concluding Remarks||David Rubin, Senior Vice President, Booz Allen Hamilton