Karen Dynan, Olivier Blanchard, and Martin Chorzempa discussed the global and regional economic impacts and policy implications of the COVID-19 pandemic at the Institute's spring 2020 semiannual Global Economic Prospects event.
Karen Dynan, nonresident senior fellow and professor of the practice in the economics department at Harvard, presented the Institute's forecast for the major economies, with a special focus on the US outlook. Her forecast, to the extent realistically possible, takes into account the damage already caused by the pandemic and prospects for recovery. Dynan highlighted key indicators to monitor and the factors that will determine the duration of the recession and the speed at which economic activity will return to normal.
Olivier Blanchard, C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, discussed the present fiscal push by the larger economies, including the common framework underlying these fiscal measures and the differences in implementing them across countries. He linked fiscal stimulus policies to the outlook through the lenses of both short-term effectiveness and longer-term debt sustainability.
Martin Chorzempa, research fellow, presented his close analysis of the signs of recovery and infection containment in China and other seemingly resilient East Asian economies. He offered insights into the various policy paths taken and how those have paid off in economic terms.