Senior Fellows Michael Mussa, Morris Goldstein, and Arvind Subramanian discussed the international economic outlook for the rest of 2008 and for 2009 at the Institute's thirteenth semiannual Global Economic Prospects meeting held April 3, 2008.
Michael Mussa was chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 1991 until 2001 and a member of the Council of Economic Advisers during 1986–88; he addressed the outlook for the overall world economy. Senior Fellow Morris Goldstein presented an assessment of the management of the current financial crisis and the need for post-crisis reforms in financial regulation to reduce the likelihood of similar problems in the future. Senior Fellow Arvind Subramanian described the prospects for India and emerging market economies.
The world economy stands at a fragile point. The United States has slowed sharply and may be in, or approaching, a recession. The world economy as a whole is proceeding much more strongly, however, and a key question is the extent to which it has "decoupled" from the United States and may even be cushioning the US downturn through a process of "reverse coupling." Institute analysts focused on the interactions between the US and global situations, with particular emphasis on the rapidly growing emerging markets and whether they have now assumed sufficient weight to significantly offset the global impact of the US slowdown.
Paper: Global Economic Prospects 2008/2009: Hoping for a Global Slowdown and a US Recession
Michael Mussa, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Paper: The Subprime and Credit Crisis [pdf]
Morris Goldstein, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Presentation: Outlook for Emerging Asia and India [pdf]
Arvind Subramanian, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Event summary [pdf]