Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2015
Unedited transcript [pdf]
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held its semiannual Global Economic Prospects session on October 1, 2015. The global economy has experienced increased turbulence in recent months as financial and commodities markets respond to heightened concerns about the implications of a slowing Chinese economy for prospects in the rest of the world—both in emerging and advanced economies. Some major emerging-market economies have weakened considerably, especially those most dependent on commodity exports. And while growth appears to be holding up reasonably well for most large advanced economies, there remain questions about whether possible negative spillovers from softer emerging-market economies could derail the still modest recoveries that the advanced economies are experiencing. Those questions must also be assessed in light of the widely expected start to the removal of monetary accommodation in the United States. The focus of this autumn's meeting will be on assessing prospects for global economic activity, the risks surrounding those prospects, and the implications for economic policy.
Nicholas R Lardy, PIIE's Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow and author of the widely-acclaimed Markets over Mao, discussed the sources and extent of the Chinese economic slowdown, and provided perspective on the implications of his outlook for the direction of economic policies in China. David J. Stockton, PIIE senior fellow and senior adviser at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, presented the US and global economic outlook and explored what the risks from China imply for macroeconomic policies, especially for the widely anticipated withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Paolo Mauro, PIIE senior fellow and an expert on fiscal policy and growth, explored the challenges in assessing longer-term global economic prospects and some of the policy implications of confronting those challenges.