The global financial system is undergoing significant structural change, raising new questions about global imbalances, the future role of the dollar, and the stability of international financial markets. Join us at the Peterson Institute for International Economics as leading economists discuss findings from the 29th Geneva Report, "The Changing Structure and Challenges of the International Financial System," examining China's growing external surplus and US fiscal deficits, the dollar's continued dominance amid shifting geopolitical and economic conditions, and the evolving architecture of global liquidity.
Report authors Valentina Bruno (American University and CEPR), Steven Kamin (American Enterprise Institute), Cédric Tille (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR) and Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC) discuss the forces reshaping the international financial system and the policy challenges ahead.
PRESENTERS
Valentina Bruno
Arlene R. and Robert P. Kogod Eminent Professor of Finance at American University; Fellow, Banking and Corporate Finance, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Steven B. Kamin
Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
Cédric Tille (presenting remotely)
Professor of Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute; Fellow, International Macroeconomics and Finance, CEPR
Ángel Ubide
Citadel LLC
ABOUT THE REPORT
The 29th Geneva Report on the World Economy, published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), assesses four major challenges currently confronting the global economy.
First, global imbalances have re-emerged as a central issue, driven by China's growing external surplus, in part reflecting its active industrial policy, and the US deficit associated with expanding public debt. The authors argue that imbalances, though rising, are not yet a cause for serious concern. Even so, greater support for domestic demand in China and fiscal consolidation in the United States would address key policy needs in these two economies while at the same time helping to shrink the imbalances.
Second, the global role of the dollar has gained renewed attention amid hikes in US tariffs, the Iran-US conflict, and mounting concerns about US fiscal sustainability. The authors argue that despite market disruptions, such as those observed following the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed by the United States, the dollar will likely retain its dominance in international trade and especially finance. Its two main competitors, the euro and the renminbi, are still hindered by fundamental limitations such as the lack of financial market integration, small supply of safe assets, and restrictions on capital mobility.
Third, global liquidity has been reconfigured around capital markets since 2008, with an expanding stock of government debt and a growing role for non-bank financial intermediaries. Yet dealer banks remain the pivot of the system: The foreign exchange swap market and the repurchase agreement, or "repo," market used to finance the US Treasury draw on the same dealer balance-sheet capacity. The result is a new type of trilemma, a bind where one cannot simultaneously have ever-expanding Treasury supply, strict constraints on dealer balance sheets, and an always-steady functioning of the bond market. Rather than retreating, the dollar's role as the operating system of global finance has only deepened.
Finally, the report discusses the geopolitical aspects of imbalances and the importance of size, power dynamics, and the echoes of past crises. These explain the outsized impact of a few countries and markets, the concerns about ensuring access to strategic goods, and the inertia that prevents the implementation of desirable policies.