Book Description

The North Korean economy cannot sustain its population. Absent fundamental economic reforms, it will never be able to do so. Hence North Korea will require sizable external support for the foreseeable future. South Korea, China, Japan, and the United States have been willing to provide this support because they fear a collapse in the North or, even worse, a lashing out that would unleash war on the peninsula and put millions of people in Asia in jeopardy—including thousands of US troops stationed in South Korea and Japan. The status quo is thus closer to extortion than charity. In this volume, a diverse group of contributors analyze prospective developments on the Korean peninsula. The authors first address the three broad strategic possibilities of war, collapse, and gradual adjustment. Four immediate policy issues are then considered: the current economic conditions and policies in the North, the food crisis, the nuclear energy/nuclear weapons issue, and the possibility of large-scale refugee flows. Finally, the volume considers several longer-run issues concerning the inevitable integration of the peninsula: the potential relevance of the German experience, the costs and benefits of economic unification between North and South Korea, and the possible role of the international financial institutions in funding the new arrangement. The volume concludes with recommendations for policymakers, especially in the United States and South Korea, from the preceding analyses.

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1. Introduction

I. Three Basic Scenarios

2. The Likelihood and the Implications of a North Korean Attack on the South
Kyongmann Jeon

3. North Korea: All Roads Lead to Collapse: All the More Reason to Engage Pyongyang
Aidan Foster-Carter

4. Managing Intergration on the Korean Peninsula: The Positive and Normative Case for Gradualism With or Without Integration
Scott Snyder

II. Immediate Issues

5. The Food Economy: The Catalyst for Collapse?
Heather Smith

6. North Korean Energy Sector: Current Status and Scenarios for 2000 and 2005
David F. Von Hippel and Peter Hayes

7. Refugee Issues Relation to Three Scenarios for the Future of the Korean Peninsula
Jeffrey S. Pilkington

III. (Slightly) Longer Run Economic Issues

8. The Current North Korean Economy
Anthony Michell

9. Korean Unification: Lessons from Germany
Holger Wolf

10. Calibrating the Costs (and Benefits) of Unification
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Ligang Liu

11. Thinking About the World Bank and North Korea
Danny M. Leipziger

IV. Implications for Domestic Policy

12. US Leadership in the Rebuilding of the North Korean Economy
K. A. Namkung

13. South Korea: Preparations Awaiting Unification'The Political Components
David I. Steinberg

14. Preparing for the Economic Integration of Two Koreas: Policy Challenges to South Korea
Soogil Young, Chang-Jae Lee, and Hyoungsoo Zang



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