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It is always hard to assess whether and how North Korea is changing under Kim Jong Un. If we focus on the conflicts with the international community over nuclear weapons or the dynastic and authoritarian nature of the regime, it is easy to assume continuity. But as we argued in Witness to Transformation, there have been fundamental changes taking place beneath these surfaces since the famine. In the most recent issue of Global Asia, Chung-in Moon, David Plott and their team at the East Asia Foundation have pulled together an interesting special issue that leans toward the “change” side of the equation but nonetheless presents some subtly divergent views. The table of contents is reproduced below.
Seong-chang Cheong leads by arguing a shift is taking place from rule through the party Secretariat under Kim Jong Il toward more consultative party bodies. The greater institutionalization of party rule is real; Glyn Ford concurs in his contribution. An important question going forward is whether this change is consequential or not, and who exactly is being consulted. If the same political forces are at the table, it may be less significant than is thought. And as Chang-hyun Jung argues, the Jang execution suggests strongly that the monolithic elements of the regime remain intact and they may be getting even more concentrated as “institutional leadership” and “personality leadership” are fused. Both Cheong and Jung argue that the changes have resulted in more control being exercised over the military, but we are more skeptical as the military and security apparatus remain core bases of the regime’s support.
Contributions by Yeon-chul Kim, Dong Wook Won, Walter Clemens and Tae Ho Kang look at the diplomatic consequences of the succession. Yeon-chul Kim traces the erratic course of North Korean policy in part to bureaucratic politics, but also notes that the effects of the balloons and leaflets is underestimated. The shift from hardline to softer line and back over the course of 2013 could be traced in part to the massive drop of leaflets in October 2013 alleging scandals involving Ri Sol Ju, Kim Jong Un’s wife. This could well explain the adverse turn in North Korea’s stance toward the South as well.
Doon Wok Won provides a useful overview of the China-DPRK relationship. He claims that there was an inflection toward a more activist policy from 2009 when state-led investment in infrastructure and economic zones received more attention; he doesn’t see this focus shifting in the wake of the Jang execution as Beijing continues to try to urge reform on the North. Tae-ho Kang and Walter Clemens spell out divergent views of the prospects for negotiations: Kang, a reporter for Hankyoreh, is somewhat more hopeful for a resumption of the Six Party Talks. Clemens outlines the differences between Iran and North Korea and is more pessimistic.
Finally, Rudy Frank and Glyn Ford outline some of the changes on the ground. Ford notes the highly unequal patterns of economic development and argues that the regime is banking on foreign investment as its core strategy; this was the interpretation we gave to the New Year's speech. Frank, finally, evaluates the byungjin line and comes to a conclusion that it does in fact mark the end of sǒn’gun, or the military first approach; we are somewhat more skeptical. But Frank then asks whether it is feasible to “walk on two legs” in a country where the fiscal system is weak to say the least. Here we agree strongly with Frank; at some point, either revenues will have to rise or military spending will have to contract if resources are to be shifted to economic development. The hope, again, appears that taxes on foreign trade and investment will plug this hole.
We have high regard for the Global Asia team; this is a highly readable overview of current thinking on North Korea.
Table of Contents
1) The Anatomy of Kim Jong Un’s Power, by Seong-chang Cheong
Kim Jong Un was better prepared for the succession than many realized and he secured his grip on power faster than anyone imagined possible.
2) The Execution of Jang Song Thaek: Consolidating Power Pyongyang-Style, by Chang-hyun Jung
How Jang’s execution illustrates Kim’s success in consolidating the “monolithic leadership” of the ruling party centered on the young ruler.
3) Inter-Korean Relations: What Accounts for Kim Jong Un’s Changing Attitudes? , by Yeon-chul Kim
The peculiarities of the North Korean system account for many policy swings in a country whose decision-making processes are both unique and opaque.
4) Will the Jang Execution Affect Beijing’s Economic Ties With Pyongyang? , by Dong Wook Won
Jang Song Thaek’s execution eliminated a key channel of information and influence between China and North Korea. How is Beijing reacting?
5) Can North Korea Prioritize Nukes and the Economy at the Same Time? , by Rüdiger Frank
Kim Jong Un has put economic development on a par with the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Can Pyongyang can actually afford to pursue both simultaneously?
6) Forks in the Road to Reform: Socio-Economic Changes Under Kim Jong Un , by Glyn Ford
Economic reform and opening have moved to center stage in North Korea, and Kim Jong Un appears committed to bringing the country out of the dark ages.
7) Negotiating with Revolutionary Pariah States: Why North Korea Is Not Iran , by Walter C. Clemens, Jr
There are plenty of reasons why the prospects for successful negotiations are greater with Iran than with North Korea. Maybe North Korea could learn from this.
8) North Korea Inches Toward Negotiations on Its Nuclear Ambitions , by Tae-ho Kang
There are signs that North Korea may be looking for a way out of the current impasse in efforts by the international community to thwart its nuclear ambitions.
