Body
Over the weekend, I watched director Lee Tamahori’s The Devil's Double. Based on real events, the movie tells the story of a childhood friend of Uday Hussein who is drafted to be his body double. The movie plays around with themes of personal identity. But the real story line is about the sociology of power in authoritarian Iraq. Uday was a sadistic psychopath; there is no other way to describe him. Nonetheless, his outrageous behavior was indulged—and thus ultimately encouraged--because he was Saddam’s son.
The inherited, familial sources of social power are an issue in all societies (and one good reason for inheritance taxes). But they are of particular import in authoritarian settings where there are even more limited checks on elite privilege. The issue is a burning one in China following the recent Bo Xilai affair; the WSJ has a useful piece with a chart showing some of the notable next-generation faces. Among those doing the most interesting work on China is Australian journalist John Garnaut; a talk he gave at USC last year provides a good introduction. Cheng Li at Brookings is also doing work on factions in the Chinese leadership.
But it would make sense that similar things are going on in North Korea. A recent piece in Yonhap's NK Newsletter offers up gossip on Cha Chol-ma, reputed to be one of the richest men in North Korea (albeit with assets estimated at only $10 million; peanuts by Chinese standards). Cha is a son-in-law of the late Ri Je-gang, who died in a traffic accident in June 2010 after serving as one of Kim Jong-il's closest confidantes. Purported to be a long-time rival of Jang Sung-taek’s, his death raised eyebrows about possible palace intrigue; despite his position, virtually no one showed up for his funeral.
How does it work? According to Yonhap, Cha, is alleged to have earned his money by monopolizing foreign currency earning businesses run by the Supreme People’s Assembly standing committees. The incredible balkanization of the economy into distinct fiefdoms is suspected of being a major problem for the planning process. He is also said to have expanded his wealth and business knowledge while serving as a diplomat at the North's embassies in China and Pakistan. And we all know the nature of the Pakistan trade.
We reproduce here the piece from Nanfang Zhoumo January 12 of this year.
Kim Jong Il's 'Gote' - Who is Assisting Kim Jong Un
Whether Kim Jong Un can smoothly traverse the transition period of losing Kim Jong Il has become the "greatest mystery" left by Kim Jong Il. The mystery is not just about North Korea, but also about South Korea and China, which will affect the situation in entire Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.
How does the "Young General" take up the task of leading the country?
This is undoubtedly the problem that the world is most concerned with regarding North Korea after Kim Jong Il passed away. In fact, as the Deputies meeting of the Workers' Party of North Korea determined Kim Jong Un as the successor in the year 2010, this question has already existed. As the direct rival of North Korea, South Korea did not hide its worries. Early in 2008, when it was revealed for first time that Kim Jong Il was terminally sick, it was known that Korea once made the "Chungmu Plan." This plan made it clear that, once "North Korea's political system crashes or collapses," South Korea will take necessary action "to recover North Korea and bring it under the rule of South Korea." Until year 2011 when Kim Jong Il passed away, after several updates and amendments, this plan was known as the "Chungmu 9000."
In 2012, the stability of Northeast Asia is supposedly related to whether Kim Jong Un can succeed.
Kim Jong Un's Team
Since the death of Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Il's national mourning was in order and the annual winter training of troops remained the same. All these left a smooth and steady impression on people. Obviously, those who are in charge of Pyongyang are very clear that the key of the problem is that their own front line should not be chaotic.
The leading group centering on Kim Jong Un has been established in the form. During those years when Kim Jong Un was taking the post of the vice chairman of the Central Military Committee of Workers' Party of Korea, he replaced a large quantity of the commanders of frontline troops, promoted a lot of young generals and officials in the so-called "Bonghwa Group" and promoted them to troops and governments. In the present group of Kim Jong Un, the most remarkable are Lee Yongho, Choe Ryonghae and Moon Geoung Deok, who entered the stage in the third Deputies' Meeting of the Party, as well as the "Bonghwa Group," with members of the "Red II Generation" as representative.
Lee Yongho is over sixty, but he is the youngest commander in the history of Korean People's Army. "Lee Yongho has eyes only for artillery. In January, 2010, it was under his command that Korean Costal Artillery Troops implemented a large-scale demonstration of force on the west coast." For South Korea, Lee Yongho, who has a tough style and uses fierce words, is known as the "strong arm" in the People's Army. The National Intelligence Service of Korea made an assessment and believes that, at present, a batch of senior officials of the People's Army centering on Lee Yongho and at the ages between fifty years old to sixty years old are gradually stepping up to the core. At least, now the elites of the army do not suspect such arrangements and do not want to break such a situation.
South Korea considers Choe Ryonghae as an important official who assists Kim Jong Un in governing the country. The main task of Choe Ryonghae is to assist Kim Jong Un on the aspect of party affairs. Before the Congress of Party Representatives in 2010, Choe Ryonghae was honored with martial status of senior general. At the Congress of Party Representatives, Choe Ryonghae was elected as the alternate member of the Political Bureau, the secretary of the Secretary Bureau and member of Military Committee of Party Central Committee. Choe Ryonghae's father is the comrade-in-arms of Kim ll-sung. The former minister of the Force Department Choe Hyon (passed away in year 1982), Choe Ryonghae and Kim Jong Il maintained a close relationship.
Within the Labor Party, Choe Ryonghae has always been famous for his "dare to admonish" attitude. After the monetary reform of North Korea suffered from a setback in early 2010, Choe Ryonghae expressed in the front of Kim Jong Il that: "Due to monetary reform, people's lives become difficult." South Korean media has speculated that Choe Ryonghae is considered to be the first person selected for the undersecretary of Organization and Guidance Department of Labor Party and it is most likely for him to be an important assistant who assists the supreme leader of North Korea in handling party affairs.
The Organization and Guidance Department of Labor Party manages of the appointment of cadres within the army, cabinet and public organizations. It is one of the organizations with the highest power in North Korea. The minister of the department has always been held by Kim Jong Il as a current post. In the future, the responsibility secretary of the Labor Party of Pyongyang, Moon Geoung Deok is expected to be relied upon. However, there is news that why Moon Geoung Deok, who was born in 1957, could be put into an important position is due to the cultivation of Chang Sungtaek, the vice chairman of National Defense Commission. Moon Geoung Deok's official career is closely related to Chang Sungtaek. In 2009, after entering the National Defense Commission with Chang Sungtaek, Moon Geoung Deok was quickly promoted to the vice minister of the Administrative Party of Workers Party of Korea. In June, 2010, he replaced Choi Young Lim who was elected as the prime minister of the Korean Cabinet, and became the municipal party secretary of Pyongyang.
Chang Sungtaek, who was regarded by many people as the No.1 assistant of Kim Jong Un now, is hidden outside of the glory. At present, he just holds the post of alternate member of the Political Bureau and the CPC Committee. The principal of International Development and Cooperation Research Center of the Korean Foreign Economic Policy Research Institute, Zhao Mingzhe, expressed that, in the future, there is no one who is more suitable than Chang Sungtaek to assist Kim Jong Un. Besides, as Chang Sungtaek is the vice chairman of the National Defense Commission - the organization with supreme rights in North Korea, his influence and power are unparalleled.
Lee Yongho, Choe Ryonghae and Moon Geoung Deok, who are thought of highly by Kim Jong Un, all have a good relationship with Chang Sungtaek. Lee Yongho and Chang Sungtaek were schoolmates when they were at the Mangyongdae Revolution Institute. Choe Ryonghae and Moon Geoung Deok were promoted by Chang Sungtaek. They all hold important positions in the Labor Party. And Kim Jong Un's aunt, Kim Keoung Hee, is Chang Sungtaek's wife. Some analysts point out that Chang Sungtaek, Kim Keoung Hee, Lee Yongho, Choe Ryonghae and Moon Geoung Deok would become the core to help Kim Jong Un complete his succession in the future.
"Bonghwa Group" as the Red 2nd Generation
Except for these figures at the top of the pyramid, a group of young people who are active in the North Korean party, army and government also became allied forces of Kim Jong Un. They are the children of senior officials of the Labor Party and government. The age of "Bonghwa Group" members ranges from 30 years old to 40 years old. The most famous representatives are Woo Sae-heon (the second son of Jo Myong-rok, who took the post of the vice chairman of National Defense Commission of North Korea), Kang Tae-song (the eldest son of Kang Sok-ju, who took the post of the vice premier of the North Korean Cabinet) and Joo Sheong-hoo (the second son of Jo Myong-rok, who is the former vice chairman of the National Defense Commission and the director of Political Bureau of the People's Army).
The name "Bonghwa Group" came from the Fenghuoli District of Jiangdong County of Pyongyang, which was the birthplace of the family of Kim Jong Il's grandmother Kang Ban-sok. In Korean, "Bonghwa" originally means "pioneer." In the year 2008, Kim Jong Il fell fainted due to a stroke. The place where he received treatment is the hospital of the highest standard in North Korea--"Bonghwa clinic." "Bonghwa Group" members mostly studied at the Kim Jong Il Comprehensive University, Pyongyang Foreign Language University and other famous universities in North Korea.
The National Intelligence Service of South Korea said, after Kim Jong Un was nominated as the successor, his distance with members of the "Bonghwa Group" was shortened. At present, members of the "Bonghwa Group" are mostly working in the Head Office of Reconnaissance, Supreme Procuratorial Office and other power institutions that are subordinate to the National Security Department and the People's Military Department. Woo Sae-heon graduated from the Kim Jong Il Political University, which educates military and high-tech personnel and he once took a post in the War Department of the Labor Party where his father also took office. After Kim Jong Un was confirmed as successor, Woo Sae Heon never took a post in state organs in any official way. Kang Tae-song now works in the Head Office of Reconnaissance, which is subordinate to the People's Military Department of North Korea and he is responsible for handling foreign exchange business.
Joo Yeoung-gee, professor of the Korean University said that, the "Bonghwa Group" shall be considered as Kim Jong Un's backing organization. When Kim Jong Il was still alive, the existence of the "Bonghwa Group" was intended to consolidate the foundation of Kim Jong Un's succession. An Chan-il, director of the World North Korea Research Institute, said that the "Bonghwa Group" has a sense of pride of supporting the system of North Korea. Seen from the current situation, many people have few objections towards Kim Jong Un's succession. Kim Jong Un has no contradictions or opposition to them.
The "Bonghwa Group," which is mostly formed by people at 30 years old or 40 years old, will play the role of "armed escort" during the process of Kim Jong Un's inheritance. Joo Yeounggee, professor of the Korean University thinks that: the influence and rights of the "Bonghwa Group" depends on the way that Kim Jong Un accepts the "Bonghwa Group" and the space and freedom that Kim Jong Un gives to the "Bonghwa Group" after his inheritance.
The establishment process of Kim Jong Un's succession system is mainly around two "axes" to start: While uniting the people through the "idol" of publicity, it also pays special attention to bringing the functions of the army, security services and other "physical forces" into play so as to ensure domestic control. According to sources, on North Korea's "Youth Day" of August 28, 2011, Kim Jong Un issued instructions: "To enhance the prohibition of South Korea CD activity nationwide and to thoroughly crush the passageway of importing CD and goods of South Korea from the external world," the inspection team that is sent to the frontiers is named the "828 day-to-day business." Before, in North Korea, the date when Kim Jong Il issued instructions was often used as the name of the inspection team, for example, "7/24 day-to-day business." It is the first time to use the date that Kim Jong Un issued instructions as the name of the inspection team.
Some analysts believe that Kim Jong Un's model of rights controlling is clear. The outside world is waiting to see whether, in the future, he is going to make achievements in the economic field, further improve foreign relations so as to get more assistance or whether he would continue to show the external world the strong power of "military-first politics," to launch missiles or to carry out a third nuclear test.
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As we always say, caveat emptor.
