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We recently wrote about North Korean misadventures off the coast of Antarctica. The message below, from a journalist who shall remain anonymous, sent to seven Korea-watchers takes us on another sort of fishing trip:
“Good morning gents,
We have not communicated for a while. I wanted to get a sense of what you think is happening on the North Korean front at the moment. As one academic website pointed out last week, Spring has in the past been the time when the North stages provocations. Whether they be missile tests, or alleged attacks on South Korean navy vessels. Yet at the same, Pyongyang continues to reach out, and talk about six-party talks continues.
The general consensus a few months ago, was the North would carry out another, possibly even more brutal provocation, as early as this spring? Do you still believe this? Or is it more likely to carry out a ‘lesser’ provocation such as a missile test?
Is China managing to restrain North Korea?
Then, has there been a change in atmosphere, which could be conducive to talks?
Has the South’s tough talk this time really forced to the North to rethink its strategy of carrying out provocations?
What must both sides do now to move forward?
And it was interesting to hear Walter Sharpe’s statement last week that he doesn’t believe KJI will give up his nuclear capability. So where does that leave 6-party talks? And, then we haven’t even started on food aid!
In a nutshell, is there a change in the dynamic on the peninsula, or are we still in the place we have been for the pas [sic] 60 years?”
We love journalists, and typically learn as much from them as they do from us. But sometimes the requests seem a little, well, open-ended, certainly exceeding the bounds of our knowledge. So we turn to the collective wisdom of our readership. What do you think? The best answer submitted by midnight Thursday Washington-time will be forwarded to our correspondent, and the winner will receive a copy of Witness to Transformation. Good luck!
