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A new issue addressed by Luke Herman in his massive report on the leadership during the first half of the year is a measure of what he calls the “strength” of different DPRK institutions. The individual rankings are constructed out of placement on the Jo Myong-rok funeral committee, and then cross-checked against a ranking derived from various KCNA sources; correlation is reasonable. It may seem a stretch to read too much into these rankings, but even in democracies there is protocol; the rankings reveal some information.
The table below provides the mean and median ranking scores for individuals occupying positions in different institutions (minus Kim Jong Il, who is not ranked). Individuals holding two positions are simply averaged into the scores for each institution. Remember that lower numbers reveal higher standing.
The findings are interesting for debates about the relationship between the party, military and government. The Politburo is not only composed of individuals of higher rank, but the standard deviation is also lower: there are fewer “stuffed shirt” appointments of lower rank. What is striking is that the Secretariat is composed of higher-ranking individuals—on average—than either the National Defense Commission or the party’s Central Military Commission. The reason? A number of lower-ranked military appointments to these bodies. This could reflect an effort to promote up a next-generation of military leaders loyal to Kim III; however in the interim, the Secretariat would appear to play an important role in the decision-making process.
Note that the Cabinet’s ranking falls far behind other bodies, a reflection of the marginalization of the technocrats. Not surprising, perhaps, but striking to see the gap in influence in black-and-white. Even more depressing, Herman finds that Cabinet members did accompany Kim Jong-il on a few of his economic appearances, but none of them were at these appearances more than 20% of the time. His most frequent companions on these on-the-spot guidance efforts? None other than Kim Kyong-hui and Jang Sung-taek. All in the family.
