RealTime Economic Issues Watch
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RealTime Economic Issues Watch

In RealTime posts, PIIE senior staff and colleagues discuss the fast-moving economic news, financial developments, and public policy choices confronting the United States and the world.

Will the Pacific Alliance Succeed in Latin America After Other Trade Pacts Have Failed?

by Barbara Kotschwar | May 23rd, 2013 | 03:57 pm

Pacific Alliance fever has set in. This trade grouping—which joins together the economies of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru—is holding its seventh summit on Thursday in the western Colombian city of Cali with more and more attention being paid throughout the region. The alliance has been lauded as “the most exciting thing going on today [...]

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The ECB Should Act to Avert the Risk of Deflation in the Euro Area

by Angel Ubide | May 23rd, 2013 | 10:31 am

For years, observers of the European Central Bank (ECB) have been hearing the same line from its former President, Jean Claude Trichet: “We have one needle in our compass, and that is price stability.” This precept should contribute to understanding the central bank’s policy stance: When price stability is assured, there is no need to [...]

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The Political Prospects for Europe’s Pro-EU Parties

by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard | May 22nd, 2013 | 12:12 pm

Despite the repeated warnings of commentators too numerous to mention, Europeans have declined to elect ultra-nationalist, anti-establishment majorities in their parliaments and hasten a repeat of 1930s era fascism or communism. This does not mean that the continent is without political problems as the next European elections approach, however. For reasons I will explain below, [...]

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Quit Biting on Apple: Congress’s Misplaced Outrage over Corporate Taxes

by Gary Clyde Hufbauer | May 21st, 2013 | 01:51 pm

Senators are chomping down hard on Apple’s tax returns, trying to paint the company as Peck’s Bad Boy of corporate taxation. The lawmakers’ appetite has been whetted by a congressional investigation showing that the company avoided billions in taxes by setting up a complex web of global subsidiaries, some of them with no employees but [...]

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Effects of the Euro Crisis on Reserve Currency Holdings

by Allie E. Bagnall | May 13th, 2013 | 12:28 pm

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest update of its data on the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) at the end of March, with data through the end of 2012. From the end of 2010 through the end of 2012, the quantity share (adjusted for the effects of changes in exchange [...]

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Is France a ‘Peripheral’ Country?

by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard | May 8th, 2013 | 07:08 pm

A few weeks ago Reuters reported that the French finance Minister, Pierre Moscovici, fell asleep during the final late night negotiations over the Cypriot bank bailout on March 24. It apparently fell to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director, Christine Lagarde—a former French finance minister herself—to wake him up. No doubt the grueling round-the-clock [...]

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Southern Europe’s Problem: Poor Education

by Anders Aslund | May 3rd, 2013 | 11:27 am

A little noticed fact about the economic turmoil in southern Europe is that Portugal and Italy, two of the countries struggling the most, had minimal growth even during the seven good pre-crisis years of 2001–07.1 The most overlooked common problem of the four Southern European countries—Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece—is that they are all hampered [...]

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Obama’s Trip to Mexico: Building on NAFTA to Broaden Trade with Asia

by Barbara Kotschwar | May 1st, 2013 | 04:17 pm

President Obama’s fourth visit to Mexico since taking office in 2009 will also be his first under its new president, Enrique Peña Nieto, who took office in December. While some of the discussion is certain to focus on the joint US-Mexican campaign against drug trafficking, that issue, as vital as it is, should not overlook [...]

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Uncertain Prospects for Italy and Cyprus

by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard | May 1st, 2013 | 12:13 pm

Installation of a new government in Italy and the first effects of the newly approved bailout in Cyprus provide some modestly optimistic data points for an otherwise weak euro area outlook. For Italy, a Fresh Start, a Youthful Team, but No Guarantees of Success In Italy, Enrico Letta has taken office as the prime minister, [...]

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Ukraine’s Banks Are in Turmoil

by Anders Aslund | April 30th, 2013 | 11:59 am

The Ukrainian banking system has gone through persistent convulsions in the last seven years. A wave of West European purchases of Ukrainian banks just before the crisis of 2008–09 has been largely reversed. Instead, Russian and Ukrainian state banks have expanded, as have banks owned by people close to President Viktor Yanukovych. In 2006–08, Ukrainian [...]

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