Oil containers are pictured at the Port of Fujairah, as the war in the Middle East limits marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo taken in Fujairah, UAE on May 6, 2026.
Photo Credit: REUTERS/Amr Alfiky

Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war

This year’s Middle East war has driven up energy prices, disrupting economic activity around the world. If these effects persist for one to three years, they will slow global growth, hurting emerging economies more than advanced economies, write Warwick McKibbin, Marcus Noland, and Geoffrey Shuetrim.

Newsletter Icon

Subscribe to PIIE Insider!

Weekly newsletter with the latest insights

Upcoming events

Trade Winds

The USMCA review: Where is it going?

June 10, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Kellie Meiman Hock (McLarty Associates), Juan Carlos Baker Pineda (Georgetown Americas Institute), Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) and John M. Weekes (Canadian Global Affairs Institute)
Jun
10

The Florence Report: An agenda for Europe

June 11, 2026, 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM EDT

Adam S. Posen (PIIE), Marco Buti (European University Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research), Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research), Jeffry Frieden (Columbia University), Harold James (Princeton University) and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Centre for Economic Policy Research; Geneva Graduate Institute)
Jun
11

Ukraine's fiscal and financial challenges

June 18, 2026, 9:00 AM to 9:45 AM EDT
Nicolas Véron (PIIE) and Natalie Jaresko (EY Parthenon; Former Minister of Finance of Ukraine)
Jun
18

Featured Topics 

US Federal Reserve

Tariffs

Inflation

China

In The News

Resources