Peterson Institute for International Economics

Seized fentanyl on October 31, 2024. ZUMA

Photo Credit: Press/Darryl Dyck

How the first Trump administration and China reduced US fentanyl deaths

Marcus Noland (PIIE), Julieta Contreras (PIIE), and Lucas Rengifo-Keller (former PIIE)

The Trump administration this year cited China's role in fueling fentanyl flows among the reasons for hiking tariffs on that country, which retaliated by raising tariffs on US products. New research shows that cooperation between the first Trump administration and Beijing in 2019 resulted in nearly 1,000 fewer fentanyl overdose deaths than would have occurred otherwise.

People watch Argentina's President Javier Milei give a speech as he addresses people on national TV, on the day Argentina's government reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund board to approve a $20 billion loan deal in Buenos Aires, Argentina, April 11, 2025

REUTERS/Cristina Sille

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Cristina Sille

RealTime Economics

The Argentina-IMF saga starts a new season

Alejandro Werner (PIIE)

May 14, 2025

People walk along a Frankfurt's central shopping mile, Frankfurt, Germany.

DPA/Frank Rumpenhorst

Photo Credit: DPA/Frank Rumpenhorst

Working Papers

Convergence? Thoughts about the evolution of mainstream macroeconomics over the last 40 years

Olivier Blanchard (PIIE)

May 8, 2025

PIIE Chart

Trump's tariffs could bring new revenue but would also reduce other tax revenue

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University) and Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.)

April 28, 2025

Pixabay/Thomas Breher

Photo Credit: Pixabay/Thomas Breher

Op-Eds

King Dollar’s Shaky Crown

Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

April 25, 2025

via Project Syndicate

What's New

The European Union and South Korea should join the transpacific trade pact

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE) and Yeo Han-koo (PIIE)

May 20, 2025

The U.S. Capitol is reflected on a window as members of the House Budget Committee are set to meet in a rare Sunday night session to consider U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 18, 2025.

Behold the New Tax Plan: More Complicated, Less Fair, Totally Unaffordable

Jason Furman (PIIE)

May 20, 2025

via New York Times

Fentanyl pills are displayed in New York City. Photo taken on June 24, 2024.

How the first Trump administration and China reduced US fentanyl deaths

Marcus Noland (PIIE), Julieta Contreras (PIIE) and Lucas Rengifo-Keller (former PIIE)

May 19, 2025

Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland, as trade tensions continued over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, U.S., May 12, 2025.

America's decision to tax trade

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

May 16, 2025

PIIE Charts

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

May 14, 2025

Trump's tariffs could bring new revenue but would also reduce other tax revenue

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University) and Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.)

April 28, 2025

Rising inflation expectations could discourage Fed rate cuts this year

David Wilcox (PIIE)

April 22, 2025

US economy expected to stall as policy changes weigh on growth

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 15, 2025

Trade Winds

Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs

May 21, 2025, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Chad P. Bown (PIIE) and Arancha González Laya (Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po; Former Foreign Minister of Spain)

May

US-China cooperation and fentanyl overdose deaths

May 28, 2025, 11:00 AM to 11:45 AM EDT

Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE), Julieta Contreras (PIIE), Marcus Noland (PIIE) and Lucas Rengifo-Keller (former PIIE)

May

Industrial policy for Asia and the Pacific: Lessons and future directions

June 5, 2025, 5:00 PM to 6:30 PM EDT

Chad P. Bown (PIIE), Ross Garnaut (University of Melbourne), Ann E. Harrison (University of California, Berkeley), Mari Elka Pangestu (PIIE) and Danny Quah (Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy)

Jun