Peterson Institute for International Economics

Seized fentanyl on October 31, 2024. ZUMA

Photo Credit: Press/Darryl Dyck

How the first Trump administration and China reduced US fentanyl deaths

Marcus Noland (PIIE), Julieta Contreras (PIIE), and Lucas Rengifo-Keller (former PIIE)

The Trump administration this year cited China's role in fueling fentanyl flows among the reasons for hiking tariffs on that country, which retaliated by raising tariffs on US products. New research shows that cooperation between the first Trump administration and Beijing in 2019 resulted in nearly 1,000 fewer fentanyl overdose deaths than would have occurred otherwise.

People walk along a Frankfurt's central shopping mile, Frankfurt, Germany.

DPA/Frank Rumpenhorst

Photo Credit: DPA/Frank Rumpenhorst

Working Papers

Convergence? Thoughts about the evolution of mainstream macroeconomics over the last 40 years

Olivier Blanchard (PIIE)

May 8, 2025

Photo of the US dollar and RMB yuan banknotes.

Oriental Image via Reuters Connect

Photo Credit: Oriental Image via Reuters Connect

Policy Briefs

Significant, but not systemic: The challenge of China's efforts to rival Western financial predominance

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) and Lukas Spielberger (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy–VUB)

May 6, 2025

PIIE Chart

Trump's tariffs could bring new revenue but would also reduce other tax revenue

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University) and Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.)

April 28, 2025

Pixabay/Thomas Breher

Photo Credit: Pixabay/Thomas Breher

Op-Eds

King Dollar’s Shaky Crown

Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

April 25, 2025

via Project Syndicate

What's New

The entrance to the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt am Main.

Lessons for the European Central Bank from the 2021-23 inflationary episode

Pablo Hernández de Cos (PIIE)

May 2025

Stopping the flow: The effects of US-China cooperation on fentanyl markets and overdose deaths

Marcus Noland (PIIE), Julieta Contreras (PIIE) and Lucas Rengifo-Keller (former PIIE)

May 2025

Convergence? Thoughts about the evolution of mainstream macroeconomics over the last 40 years

Olivier Blanchard (PIIE)

May 2025

Workers assemble Ather 450X electric scooter inside Ather Energy's manufacturing facility in Hosur in southern state of Tamil Nadu, India, March 23, 2025.

Manufacturing-Led Export Strategies Still Make Sense

Amrit Amirapu (University of Kent) and Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

May 8, 2025

via Project Syndicate

PIIE Charts

Trump's tariffs could bring new revenue but would also reduce other tax revenue

Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE; Australian National University) and Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.)

April 28, 2025

Rising inflation expectations could discourage Fed rate cuts this year

David Wilcox (PIIE)

April 22, 2025

US economy expected to stall as policy changes weigh on growth

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 15, 2025

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

April 12, 2025

PIIE Insider LIVE

Immigration and the US economy

May 20, 2025, 10:00 AM to 10:30 AM EDT

Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE) and Michael A. Clemens (PIIE)

May

Trade Winds

Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs

May 21, 2025, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Chad P. Bown (PIIE) and Arancha González Laya (Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po; Former Foreign Minister of Spain)

May