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POLICY BRIEF 10-1

The Winter of Their Discontent: Pyongyang Attacks the Market

by Stephan Haggard, University of California, San Diego
and Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute for International Economics


North Korea's confiscatory currency reform and the subsequent ban on the use of foreign currencies are economically misguided policies and will result in the reduction of North Korean residents' welfare. These developments come at an inopportune time with the country facing economic stagnation, spiraling prices, and a resurgence of food shortages. North Korea has made no attempt to veil its motivations: strengthening the socialist economy by directly attacking the market and the independence from state control that it represents. Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland posit that these policies will require a ratcheting up of already high levels of repression, and as long as the state lacks the resources and capacity to provide goods to its citizens, the effort is unlikely to significantly contribute to the stated goal of rebuilding socialism or eradicating the market. The open questions are whether the policies will be reversed and whether they have sown such discontent as to threaten political stability. The survival instincts of North Korea's determined, resilient citizens may very well make the market a locus of precisely the political activity the regime seeks to thwart.

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RELATED LINKS

Working Paper 10-2: Economic Crime and Punishment in North Korea March 2010

Paper: Implementing the KORUS FTA: Key Challenges and Policy Proposals

Policy Brief 08-6: North Korea on the Precipice of Famine May 2008

Policy Brief 07-7: The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement: A Summary Assessment August 2007

Policy Brief 06-4: Negotiating the Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement June 2006

Working Paper 07-7: North Korea’s External Economic Relations August 2007

Working Paper 04-3: Selective Intervention and Growth: The Case of Korea August 2004

Policy Brief 03-6: The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations May 2003

Book: Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas June 2000

Book: Free Trade Between Korea and the United States? April 2001

Working Paper 08-1: Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments of North Korea's Transition January 2008

Working Paper 08-4: Migration Experiences of North Korean Refugees: Survey Evidence from China March 2008