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North Korea: Witness to Transformation Don Oberdorfer 1931-2015
Stephan Haggard — August 4, 2015
Whenever I am asked for suggestions for an introduction to the Korean peninsula, I always start with Don Oberdorfer’s The Two Koreas. Oberdorfer was a diplomatic correspondent for the Washington Post ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The Foreign Policy Case for Reviving the Ex-Im Bank
Gary Clyde Hufbauer — August 3, 2015
The US Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) stopped doing business on June 30, 2015, when its charter lapsed in the absence of congressional reauthorization. At that time, Ex-Im had an export sales pipeline of $9.3 billion, including 30 major transactions that were put on ice.

Op-ed Still Too Big to Fail
Simon Johnson — August 3, 2015
More than five years after the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial reform, the cause of the crisis—the existence of banks that are "too big to fail"—has yet to be uprooted. As long as that remains the case, another disaster is only a matter of time.

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The TPP Deal: Not Closed but Close to Closure
Jeffrey J. Schott — August 3, 2015
Completing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade accord at the Maui meeting of trade ministers last week was a very ambitious and difficult goal. It didn't get done, despite resolution of key chapters on the environment and other issues. But the time in paradise was well spent.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Has Productivity Outstripped Wage Growth?
Robert Z. Lawrence — July 31, 2015
Robert Z. Lawrence argues that, contrary to a widespread perception of lagging wage growth, constant dollar labor compensation for all US workers has kept pace with output when appropriately measured from 1970 to 2000, and perhaps to as late as 2008. ...

Working Paper 15-11 The Resilient Trade Surplus, the Pharmaceutical Sector, and Exchange Rate Assessments in Switzerland [pdf]
Philip Saure — July 31, 2015
With its cost- and time-intensive research and development, the pharmaceutical sector can generate large trade imbalances because investment and output occur in different years. Switzerland's recent trade surplus results from this effect and is therefore a poor indicator for exchange rate assessments.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Forget about Exits: Europe's Choreographed Policy Outlook
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — July 31, 2015
Following the confrontation-driven agreement between Greece and its international creditors on July 12, Europe appears ready for its usual August torpor. European leaders deserve a break. Their numerous emergency summits have stabilized the continent's outlook for at least the next year, virtuall ...

Op-ed Debate: The Case for Growth
Adam S. Posen — July 30, 2015
In an Economist debate forum, Adam S. Posen argues that growth in rich countries helps alleviate, not aggravate, the global problems of climate change, water scarcity, and poverty reduction.

Op-ed Greece: Strophe and Antistrophe
Avinash D. Persaud — July 30, 2015
A Greek default in 2010 would have avoided Greece's fiscal troubles cascading into an existential moment for the European Union. But Germany and France, fearing damage to their banks, rejected that option, and sacrificed Greece's economic sustainability for European financial stability.

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview Sanctions on Iran: Why They Worked and Why a 'Snapback' May Not Work
Gary Clyde Hufbauer — July 29, 2015
Gary Clyde Hufbauer explains that economic sanctions on Iran resulted from complex financial and diplomatic activity by Washington, complicating the challenge should sanctions have to be reimposed.

Testimony The Role of Bankruptcy Reform in Addressing Too Big To Fail [pdf]
Simon Johnson — July 29, 2015
The largest and most complex financial firms need to become much simpler and smaller in order for either bankruptcy or the FDIC's single point of entry strategy to work. If authorities are unwilling or unable to simplify and downsize too-big-too-fail banks, they should substantially increase the required amount of loss absorbing equity for those firms.

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The US-Iran Nuclear Deal and the Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions
Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Jeffrey J. Schott — July 28, 2015
The agreement announced on July 14 by the United States, Iran, and five other world powers has provoked a debate in Congress over whether too many concessions were made for too few steps by Iran to curb its nuclear program activities.

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview Will Greece Make It After All?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Edwin M. Truman — July 28, 2015
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Edwin M. Truman offer cautiously optimistic and cautiously pessimistic views respectively about Greece’s prospects for recovery and growth following another bailout.

China Economic Watch Equity Series Part 6: The Equity Market's Role in Cross-Border Capital Flows
Sean Miner — July 23, 2015
Read previous posts in this series on China's equity markets by clicking here. As part of its goal to open its capital account, China has said that that it will continue to open up its capital markets to foreigners and to let Chines ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch IMF Exceptional Access and Reform Legislation: Do Not Link the Two Issues
Edwin M. Truman — July 23, 2015
In "The Lessons Greece's Lenders Forgot" (Wall Street Journal, July 10), John Taylor argued that the United States and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) erred in May 2010 by not abiding by the IMF's 2003 framework for exceptional (large scale) access to its financial support. I argued in a letter to the Wall Street Journal that Taylor did not have all of his facts right about the Greek case and about the IMF's framework for exceptional access.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The Growing Gap between Real Wages and Labor Productivity
Robert Z. Lawrence — July 21, 2015
Since 1970, the real wages of US production workers have stagnated, despite the rapid growth in output per worker. This apparent disconnect between labor productivity and real wages is most dramatic when real output per hour is contrasted with real average hourly wages since 1970. While real average ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Hopeful Outlook for Greece
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — July 20, 2015
If Greece implements its reform program approved by parliament, it has a good chance of stabilizing its economy and achieving growth in the years ahead, according to Jacob Funk Kirkegaard. Progress on the structural reform front can then lead to a discussion with European and international credit ...

China Economic Watch China Chart of the Week: Stock Suspensions Ebb
Kent Troutman and Huang Zixuan — July 17, 2015
As Chinese official took drastic measure over the last two week to slow the free fall equity market, the number of stocks that ceased trading activities spiked. At the peak on July 8th, 1347 stocks were suspended which represented 49% of the total number of stocks and 31% of market capita ...

RECENT EVENTS

 

Catherine L. Mann

OECD Study on the Future of Productivity

OECD Chief Economist Catherine L. Mann presents her groundbreaking study on productivity, followed by comments from CEA Chairman Jason Furman.

Vitor Gaspar

Gains from Harmonizing US and EU Auto Regulations under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

Caroline Freund and Sarah Oliver discuss the potential gains from harmonizing automobile regulations under the TTIP.

Vitor Gaspar

IMF Presentation on Fiscal Policy and Growth

Vitor Gaspar presents the IMF's new assessment of the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth.

PIIE SHORT VIDEOS



Will Greece Make It After All?

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Edwin M. Truman offer cautiously optimistic and cautiously pessimistic views respectively about Greece's prospects for recovery and growth following another bailout.




Sanctions on Iran: Why They Worked and Why a 'Snapback' May Not Work

Gary Clyde Hufbauer explains that economic sanctions on Iran resulted from complex financial and diplomatic activity by Washington, complicating the challenge should sanctions have to be reimposed.




Has Productivity Outstripped Wage Growth?

Robert Z. Lawrence argues that, contrary to a widespread perception of lagging wage growth, constant dollar labor compensation for all US workers has kept pace with output when appropriately measured from 1970 to 2000, and perhaps to as late as 2008.

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