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Jacob Funk Kirkegaard empirically investigates US-India labor migration and finds it to dominate permanent and temporary employment-based migration to the United States. He concludes that the 2013 Senate Bill S-744 would ease access for Indian workers to the US labor market, while making it harder for some Indian high-tech firms to operate in the US market. Working Paper 15-1.

US concerns about Chinese leadership of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank are justified, but the way to address them is to join the institution and work from within, writes C. Fred Bergsten.

Germany has the obligation to reduce its external imbalances and contribute to global economic growth. Fortunately for Germany, a program of reforms and public investment would meet both objectives, writes Angel Ubide.

The new IMF program for Ukraine is much stronger than the 2-year arrangement concluded one year ago. This time around Ukraine has a chance, but the risks are numerous, writes Anders Åslund.

In a paper requested by the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs committee, Paolo Mauro puts forward proposals aimed at fostering economic convergence in the euro area while ensuring debt sustainability for member states.

Cullen S. Hendrix and Marcus Noland assess the state of governance reform in Myanmar and discuss outstanding challenges facing the country, particularly in the legal system, business regulatory framework, and bureaucratic capacity, as well as the potential use of external policy anchors, particularly the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, to strengthen Myanmar's ongoing reform effort. Working Paper 15-2.

Theodore H. Moran and Lindsay Oldenski analyze the recent reemergence of Japan as the most important source of foreign direct investment in the United States and recommend that US policy should focus on reinforcing and expanding the factors that attract high-performing firms and high-value production stages to the United States. Policy Brief 15-3.

Approval of the Trans-Pacific Partnership faces a major hurdle in the form of bipartisan demand in Congress that it address the manipulation of exchange rates; there is a way to resolve this dilemma, but it will require new initiatives by the Obama administration, Congress, and TPP partner countries, writes C. Fred Bergsten.

Chinese leaders have outlined an ambitious agenda for service sector reform, but myriad vested interests could slow or block their plans. Failure to reform and open up the service sector could seriously impair China’s growth prospects. Policy Brief 15-2 by Ryan Rutkowski.

Although the US unemployment rate has fallen, there is much unfinished business in restoring the health of the labor market, says Justin Wolfers in testimony before the US Senate Committee on Finance.

Russia is not likely to return to economic growth until it abandons its war of aggression in Ukraine, writes Anders Åslund.

The Swiss National Bank's surprise move to end its exchange-rate controls riled markets. Edwin M. Truman explains why the control measures were a bad idea in the first place and applauds the SNB for not telegraphing its intentions to the markets.

audio A Dramatic Opening with Cuba
Barbara Kotschwar, who was in Havana when normalization with Cuba was announced, assesses the impact and the prospects for renewed economic ties.
See also:
Speeding the Winds of Change in Cuba-US Economic Relations

Economic Normalization with Cuba: A Roadmap for US PolicymakersThe United States and Cuba are ending decades of hostility and heading toward normalizing their relations. Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Barbara Kotschwar provide recommendations on how to proceed in their recent book Economic Normalization with Cuba: A Roadmap for US Policymakers.

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2007, the prospect of secular stagnation threatens to fracture the political and social fabric of the euro area. A PIIE Briefing of six essays by economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics offers a roadmap for policymakers to guide Europe out of its current self-defeated policy mix.

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard reviews seven ways a country can reduce its public sector debt and warns that Portugal should not pursue a unilateral public debt restructuring without the full consent and cooperation of the rest of the euro area.

Most forecasts for emerging and developing economies reflect excessive optimism that is both statistically significant and economically relevant, according to a study of forecasts for horizons of up to 20 years in more than 100 countries. Policy Brief 14-26 by Giang Ho and Paolo Mauro.

http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/6970.htmlNew Book: The Great Rebirth: Lessons from the Victory of Capitalism over Communism

Anders Åslund
Simeon Djankov, eds.

Release Event | News Release

A new PIIE Briefing, released on the heels of Prime Minister Abe’s election victory in December, calls on Japan to be flexible in the negotiations for a Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and to take steps to achieve fiscal sustainability over the medium and long term.

Kevin Stahler and Arvind Subramanian find that there has been a deterioration, not improvement, in competitiveness in the eurozone periphery countries, and the pattern of adjustment within the eurozone between 2007 and 2013 has been dramatically perverse, with Germany's competitiveness having improved by 9 percent and Greece's having deteriorated by 9 percent. Working Paper 14-10.

William R. Cline finds that all four of the major economies—China, the euro area, the United States, Japan—remain close to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs); however, a continued decline in the euro and the yen could push the US economy to an excessive deficit. Policy Brief 14-25.

Theodore H. Moran identifies the most important market failures and impediments that hinder the spread of supply chains in developing economies and examines how some host governments have been successful in overcoming these obstacles. Working Paper 14-12.

Avinash D. Persaud explains why bail-in securities are fool’s gold and do not make sense in the more common and intractable case where many banks get into trouble at roughly the same time as the assets they own go bad. Policy Brief 14-23.

In NAFTA 20 Years Later, part of a new series of publications called PIIE Briefings, Institute scholars and experts assess the record two decades after the approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio analyze the resilience of Latin American countries to the global financial crisis and find that effective macroeconomic policies were key to good economic performance. Working Paper 14-11.


Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United StatesNew Book: Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States

by C. Fred Bergsten, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Sean Miner, assisted by Tyler Moran

Release Event | News Release

Korea should seek to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as soon as possible if it can manage its bilateral trade issues with Japan in a pragmatic way, write Jeffrey J. Schott and Cathleen Cimino. Simon Johnson urges the inclusion of a currency clause in the TPP agreement.

Managing the Euro Area Debt CrisisNew Book: Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China

by Nicholas R. Lardy

Release Event | News Release

TPP AND CURRENCY



Currency and Trade Comments by Adam S. Posen

Adam S. Posen explains why enacting a ban on "currency manipulation" is ill-advised—and why such a move endangers the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) between the United States and 11 other countries.

RECENT EVENTS

 

Heizo Takenaka

Abenomics' Progress in Reforming Japan's Economy

Heizo Takenaka, director of Keio University's Global Security Research Institute, provides the keynote remarks at a conference focused on the progress of Abenomics in making structural reforms.

Richard L. Trumka

US Trade Policy and American Workers: Finding the Elusive Win-Win Solution

Richard L. Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, charges that current trade policies are hurting America's workers, leading to a lively discussion.

Arvind Subramanian

Beginning a New Era: India's Union Budget 2015–16

Arvind Subramanian, chief economic advisor to the government of India and on leave from PIIE, discusses the economic outlook for India and the Modi government's reform agenda.

ABOUT OUR SUPPORTERS

Peterson Institute for International Economics Announces New Funding Disclosure Steps [pdf]

A document posted in 2014 gives our Statement of Principles, Facts about Our Funding, and charts and lists indicating funding sources and amounts in 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

TRADE AND INVESTMENT



Benefits to the US Economy in Eight Charts

The benefits to the US economy from cross-border trade and investment are narrated and visualized through eight charts. They focus on the significant growth of two-way trade and investment, higher earnings in export-intensive industries, and the changing nature of trade in a globalized economy.

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