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Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership


PIIE scholars assess the benefits and costs of the final agreement of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a potentially historic trade accord between the United States and 11 Pacific Rim trading partners.

Trade and Investment Policy Watch

The Pharma Compromise on TPP Is Good for US Consumers
Caroline Freund — October 5, 2015

The Case for TPP: Rebutting the Naysayers
Lee G. Branstetter and Gary Clyde Hufbauer — October 5, 2015

TPP Nears the Goal Line: The Trade Deal at a Glance
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs — October 2, 2015

Understanding the Estimated Gains from Trade Pacts
Peter A. Petri — June 17, 2015

A Convincing Case For Passing the TPP
The Trade and Investment Editor — May 15, 2015


What You Need to Know about the Trans-Pacific Partnership
by Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs
published by the PBS NewsHour, June 23, 2015

Books and Policy Analyses

Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Policy Analyses in International Economics 99
by Jeffrey J. Schott, Barbara Kotschwar, and Julia Muir

The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment
Policy Analyses in International Economics 98
by Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai

Most recently posted material.

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Detainee Update: the Release of Joo Won-Moon
Stephan Haggard — October 5, 2015
We almost have enough detainees to open up a database. The release of Joo Won-moon, however, does suggest a pattern: treatment of detainees is closely calibrated to the regime’s ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The Pharma Compromise on TPP Is Good for US Consumers
Caroline Freund — October 5, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement announced October 5 had been held up until the final hour by protections sought by the US pharmaceutical industry. Specifically, the US industry was demanding that America's trading partners respect a 12-year period giving the companies exclusive rights to data...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch The Case for TPP: Rebutting the Naysayers
Lee G. Branstetter and Gary Clyde Hufbauer — October 5, 2015
The long-anticipated agreement on a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade accord—reached after many days of negotiations on October 5—will usher in a new phase of debate and misinformation about the benefits of liberalizing trade.

Trade and Investment Policy Watch TPP Nears the Goal Line: The Trade Deal at a Glance
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs — October 2, 2015
After years of negotiations and disputes, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement may be entering its final stages in Atlanta in the first weekend ...

News Release Peterson Institute for International Economics Appoints Pedro Nicolaci da Costa as Editorial Fellow
October 1, 2015
Washington—The Peterson Institute for International Economics is pleased to announce that Pedro Nicolaci da Costa is joining the Institute as an editorial fellow and will contribute his acute sensibilities and sharp prose to ...

China Economic Watch PIIE Chart: Who will hold the power in AIIB?
Jan Zilinsky — October 1, 2015
China holds 30 percent of the shares in the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB), which translates to about 26.1 percent of the votes.  According to the Articles of Agreement published by the ...

Testimony Aspects of Ireland’s 2010–13 EU-IMF Program [pdf]
Ajai Chopra — October 1, 2015
In a statement for Ireland's Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis, which covers various aspects of Ireland's 2010–13 EU-IMF program, Ajai Chopra assesses program financing, debt sustainability, burden sharing with senior bank creditors, banking sector profitability and distressed debt, the fiscal adjustment path, Eurosystem liquidity support and the pace of bank deleveraging, and extinguishing emergency liquidity assistance. He also delves into the social consequences of the program, post-program fiscal consolidation needs, and risks facing Ireland.

News Release PIIE Experts Forecast Sluggish Growth for the Global Economy in 2015–16, but No Panic over China
October 1, 2015
Washington—Economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics forecast continued sluggish growth for the global economy in 2015–16, despite generally favorable economic performance among the major advance ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Europe's Capital Markets Union and the New Single Market Challenge
Nicolas Véron — September 30, 2015
The European Union has started a conversation on reforming its capital markets which raises difficult questions about market integration in regulated services sectors, of which finance is one. Powerful political constraints, currently centered on (but not limited to) the United Kingdom, preven ...

China Economic Watch PIIE Chart: Is the Size of China’s Government Growing?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — September 30, 2015
The size of government in China, when measured by general government revenue, is actually smaller than in the United States. However, the supporters of smaller government in China have been in retreat since China’s last large fiscal reform implemented by Premier Zhu Rongji in 1993-94, which has seen ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Brazil Needs to Abandon Inflation Targeting and Yield to Fiscal Dominance
Monica de Bolle — September 30, 2015
What happens when efforts to combat inflation collide with government deficits so large that they force the central bank to buy up debt, print money, and thereby drive up inflation? Economists describe this as a collision between inflation targeting and fiscal dominance. Some studies (Kumhof e ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch US BIT Talks with China and India: A Recap
Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs — September 30, 2015
September was an eventful month for US bilateral economic relations: The United States and India held their inaugural Strategic and Commercial Dialogue (S&CD) on September 22, and Chinese President Xi Jinping made his first state visit on September 25.

China Economic Watch What Obama did and did not accomplish in cyber-espionage talks with Xi
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Euijin Jung — September 29, 2015
On September 25, 2015, President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to engage in commercial cyber-espionage. In our previous blog post, we asked what might be expected. This blogpost surveys what Obama did and did not accomplish ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch Why Has Russia Failed to Diversify Exports?
Simeon Djankov — September 28, 2015
It is well known that Russia depends on oil and gas for the majority of its exports. What is less acknowledged is how much the structure of Russian exports, and the dependence on extractive industries, has stayed constant over time.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch A Non-Circuit Breaker Agenda for Brazil
Monica de Bolle — September 25, 2015
Mohamed A. El-Erian, one of the world's most respected emerging markets experts, writes that Brazil needs a "circuit breaker" to halt the vicious cycle that has trapped its economy. Brazil's turmoil—a shrinking GDP, soaring public and private debts, high interest rates, a depreciating curre ...

Working Paper 15-15 The Influence of Foreign Direct Investment, Intrafirm Trading, and Currency Undervaluation on US Firm Trade Disputes [pdf]
J. Bradford Jensen, Dennis P. Quinn and Stephen Weymouth — September 24, 2015
The authors investigate a puzzling decline in US firm antidumping (AD) filings in an era of persistent foreign currency undervaluations and increasing import competition. Firms exhibit heterogeneity both within and across industries regarding foreign direct investment (FDI). Firms making vertical, or resource-seeking, investments abroad are less likely to file AD petitions, and firms are likely to undertake vertical FDI in the context of currency undervaluation. Hence, the increasing vertical FDI of US firms makes trade disputes far less likely.

China Economic Watch PIIE Chart: China Importing Less from the United States
Sean Miner — September 23, 2015
President Obama and President Xi are expected to discuss strengthening economic ties at their upcoming summit.  This chart shows the year-over-year growth of the monthly exports, imports, and trade balance of merchandise goods since the onset of the global financial crisis;  service trade i ...

Trade and Investment Policy Watch Trade-Led Growth for India
C. Fred Bergsten — September 22, 2015
India is growing at about 7 percent per year, faster than any other large economy. But it must grow at 8 to 10 percent to employ its one million new workers every month and to eliminate poverty for 300 million of its poor citizens.



Nicholas R. Lardy

Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2015

Nicholas R. Lardy discusses the Chinese economic slowdown, followed by David J. Stockton on the US and global economic outlook and Paolo Mauro on long-term global economic prospects.

Steven Hess

Multilateral Development Banks and Asian Investment: Room for More?

PIIE, Moody's Investors Service, and the Centre for International Governance Innovation hold a conference to discuss infrastructure needs in Asia and to release the report "Where Do Multilateral Development Banks Spend Their Money?" by Steven Hess of Moody's.

Yu Yongding

Chinese Financial Development and Liberalization

Professor Yu Yongding, senior fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), delivers the Peterson Institute's eleventh Whitman Lecture.

Jeffrey J. Schott

Korea and the TPP: The Inevitable Partnership

Jeffrey J. Schott, PIIE senior fellow, and Il Houng Lee, president of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, discuss the outlook for Korean trade policy and participation in the TPP.


Has Productivity Outstripped Wage Growth?

Robert Z. Lawrence argues that, contrary to a widespread perception of lagging wage growth, constant dollar labor compensation for all US workers has kept pace with output when appropriately measured from 1970 to 2000, and perhaps to as late as 2008.


China's Economy Shadows the Obama-Xi Summit

Nicholas R. Lardy discusses China's economic difficulties and other issues likely to come up when Presidents Obama and Xi Jinping meet.


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