Most recently posted material.
North Korea: Witness to Transformation
Taiwan Foundation for Democracy: Asia Democracy and Human Rights Award
Stephan Haggard — May 18, 2013
Democracy promotion and human rights diplomacy are often assumed to be American conceits, but we are not alone. Among recently-created democracy efforts, the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy deserves mention. Founded in 2003, the Foundation is eng ...
China Economic Watch
An Estimate of Excess Borrowing by Chinese Corporations
Nicholas Borst — May 17, 2013
Earlier this week Standard and Poor’s released a headline-grabbing report on global corporate borrowi ...
Currency Wars, the Economy of the United States, and Reform of the International Monetary System [pdf]
C. Fred Bergsten — May 16, 2013
I am deeply honored to be invited to present this twelfth annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture at the Institute and want to take the occasion to add my personal gratitude to the Stavros Niarchos Foundation, led and represented here by Spyros Niarchos and Andreas Dracopoulos, for making this series possible and for supporting it so generously at the Institute over the past decade.
Bergsten Warns That Currency Wars Pose "Clear and Present Danger"
May 16, 2013
WASHINGTON—Currency wars pose "a clear and present danger" to the world economy on a scale not seen since the breakup of the trading system that led to the Great Depression in the 1930s, C. Fred Bergsten warned at the annual
Be Warned George Osborne: More Home Owners Just Really Means Higher Unemployment
David G. Blanchflower — May 13, 2013
Unemployment is a major source of unhappiness and mental ill-health. Yet after a century of economic research, the determinants of unemployment are still imperfectly understood, and unemployment levels in the industrialized nations are around 10 percent, with some over 20 percent.
RealTime Economic Issues Watch
Effects of the Euro Crisis on Reserve Currency Holdings
Allie E. Bagnall — May 13, 2013
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest update of its data on the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) at the end of March, with data through the end of 2012. From the end of 2010 through the end of 2012, the quantity share (adjusted for the effects ...
Working Paper 13-4
The Rise of Emerging Asia: Regional Peace and Global Security [pdf]
Miles Kahler — May 10, 2013
The rapid economic rise of China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could have several effects on regional peace and global security. The power transition perspective overstates the risk of conflict that results from convergence between dominant and challenger states. Rapid changes in economic and military capabilities can, however, have negative consequences for regional peace.
Peterson Perspectives Interview
Can Azevedo Rescue the WTO? Part II
Gary Clyde Hufbauer — May 10, 2013
Gary Clyde Hufbauer says countries that don't want to be left behind by a transpacific or transatlantic trade accord may spur global trade talks.
Peterson Perspectives Interview
Can Azevedo Rescue the WTO? Part I
Gary Clyde Hufbauer — May 9, 2013
Gary Clyde Hufbauer assesses the prospects for reviving global trade talks with the installation of the new WTO director-general Roberto Carvalho de Azevedo.
RealTime Economic Issues Watch
Is France a 'Peripheral' Country?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — May 8, 2013
A few weeks ago Reuters reported that the French finance Minister, Pierre Moscovici, fell asleep during the final late night negotiations over the Cypriot bank bailout on March 24. ...
Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian propose four changes to trade rules needed to address climate change. Policy Brief 13-10. See also related op-ed: Four Changes to Trade Rules to Facilitate Climate Change Action
The latest court rulings in New York that try to make Argentina pay its debts cannot compel the country to pay. Instead, they threaten collateral damage to other countries and parts of the financial system, warns Anna Gelpern. Policy Brief 13-12.
David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald explore the hypothesis that high home-ownership damages the labor market. Working Paper 13-3. See also related op-ed: Be Warned George Osborne: More Home Owners Just Really Means Higher Unemployment
The claim that there was a clear tipping point for the ratio of government debt to GDP past which an economy's walls caved in never made any sense, writes Adam S. Posen, in response to the recent reevaluation of the data underlying Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's 2010 paper on the subject. Arvind Subramanian argues that the incident exposes a flaw in the marketplace for ideas and research where superstars are involved. Listen to related interview.
Adam S. Posen testifies before the Joint Economic Committee hearing on "The Fed at 100: Can Monetary Policy Close the Growth Gap and Promote a Sound Dollar?" [pdf]
Ratifying seven pending WTO agreements could boost global exports by more than $2 trillion [pdf], say Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, Cathleen Cimino, and Julia Muir in a new paper. Trade with emerging economies has been assigned a villainous role that far exceeds its impact, write Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards. See also Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?
A country's current account balance increases between 60 and 100 cents for each dollar spent on currency intervention—a much larger effect than is widely assumed. Working Paper 13-2 by Joseph E. Gagnon.
The European Debt Crisis
Spring IMF MeetingToward a Stronger Eurozone: Fostering Growth and Completing the Architecture of EMU
Adam S. Posen participates in a high-level panel on the euro area that concluded the Spring International Monetary Fund meeting.
It is now clear that the International Monetary Fund’s advice to Southern European countries in 2008 and 2009 could hardly have been more flawed, writes Anders Åslund.
While some observers argue that the key lesson of the euro area’s baptism by fire is that greater fiscal and banking integration are needed to sustain the currency union, the real lessons of the euro crisis lie elsewhere, writes Arvind Subramanian.
Europe has been far too tolerant of moral hazard in its banking system, but with the Cyprus plan, the pendulum may now be swinging too far in the opposite direction, writes Nicolas Véron.
- Whitman Lecture: The Euro Crisis
Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
- Evaluation of the Troika Conditionality in Europe
Release of Bruegel report
- The Continuing Impact of the European Crisis
Anders Borg, Finance Minister of Sweden
- Russian Preparations for the Next G-20 Summit
Russia's G-20 Sherpa Ksenia Yudaeva and Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak
RealTime Economics Issues Posts
- Effects of the Euro Crisis on Reserve Currency Holdings by Allie E. Bagnall
- Is France a 'Peripheral' Country? by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Southern Europe's Problem: Poor Education by Anders Åslund
- Uncertain Prospects for Italy and Cyprus by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Peterson Perspectives Interviews
US corporate tax reform would make US multinational corporations stronger competitors in markets abroad and enable them to expand and invest more at home. Policy Brief 13-9 by Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro.
The members of the World Trade Organization need to face up to the key trade policy questions of the day and embark on a substantive selection process when electing a new director-general, writes Robert B. Zoellick.
Simon Johnson testifies that it is far more important to get the US economy back onto a sustainable growth path than to rapidly move toward an excessive and inappropriate degree of immediate austerity, which would only undermine US economic recovery and could destabilize financial markets. Joseph E. Gagnon testifies before the US House of Representatives that the United States needs more expansionary monetary policy.
The golden age of global economic growth—in which a growing number of developing countries have caught up with the advanced economies—has mostly survived recent global economic crises, writes Arvind Subramanian.
- Peterson Perspectives Interviews
- Can Azevedo Rescue the WTO?
- Part I | Part II
- with Gary Clyde Hufbauer
- A Korea-US Summit: Tensions and Opportunities
- Part I | Part II
- with Marcus Noland
- Is Austerity Being Reconsidered in Europe?
- with Angel Ubide
- Malaise and Paralysis in France?
- with Nicolas Véron
Edwin M. Truman writes that the IMF continues to play an indispensable role in stabilizing the world economy and financial system, but that it will need assistance (particularly from the US Congress) if it is to continue to help troubled and strong countries alike. Policy Brief 13-7. Listen to related interview: The IMF Needs Support from Congress
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership could generate new US-EU initiatives to break the deadlock over the Doha Round negotiations and also spur new global trade reforms. In Policy Brief 13-8, Jeffrey J. Schott and Cathleen Cimino recommend how to craft a viable transatlantic partnership. Listen to related interviews: Prospects for a US-European Trade Deal Part I | Part II
Japan’s inclusion on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) ensures that the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry can lead the world to a cleaner, more efficient, and more affordable energy future, writes Gary Clyde Hufbauer. See also Liquefied Natural Gas Exports: An Opportunity for America.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s announcement that Japan will seek membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) brings the negotiations a step closer to a large, 12-member trade agreement connecting countries that account for 38 percent of world GDP, explains Peter A. Petri.
- New Books on TPP
- Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership
- by Jeffrey J. Schott, Barbara Kotschwar, and Julia Muir
- The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration:
- A Quantitative Assessment
- by Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
- See also the book release event.
US business is failing to fully capitalize on India's growing economy and the problem will worsen without a deepening of US-India trade relations, Arvind Subramanian tells the House Ways and Means Committee.
Prime Minister David Cameron made a number of unfounded assertions in his speech on the British economy, write David Blanchflower and Adam S. Posen. The UK government needs to recognize that it is engaging in the same misguided economic policies as those plaguing the euro area, warns Posen.