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Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects: L- or V-shaped Recovery?

Fifteenth semiannual meeting

Michael Mussa, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Simon Johnson, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC

April 7, 2009

Senior fellows Michael Mussa and Simon Johnson debated the course of the world economy for 2009–2010 at the Institute's 15th semiannual Global Economic Prospects program on April 7, 2009.

Simon Johnson predicts that deep and continuing problems in the financial markets, weak confidence, and balance sheet issues around the world will likely produce a prolonged global recession and a delayed and weak recovery. Michael Mussa, while sharing deep concerns over the near-term outlook, predicts that the substantial stimulus initiatives already undertaken will promote a vigorous recovery, along the lines of the traditional V-shaped rebounds from past deep recessions.

Mussa and Johnson are both former chief economists of the International Monetary Fund and are widely cited in the media for their economic outlooks. Simon Johnson is also a professor at MIT.

Event Materials

Transcript [pdf]

Paper: World Recession and Recovery: A V or an L? [pdf]
Michael Mussa

Article: Baseline Scenario: Post-G-20 Edition
Simon Johnson, Peter Boone, and James Kwak