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In our post from last Friday, we discussed central deterrence on the Korean peninsula: the ability of the United States and the ROK to deter both a first nuclear strike and a large-scale conventional attack. We raised questions about whether the use of strategic or even tactical nuclear weapons were even credible, and emphasized the [...]
We not only got through the Day of the Sun without a missile test, but the conversation has shifted—on a dime—to the prospects for talks. The opening North Korean bids are very high. The National Defense Commission statement seeks: An end to provocations, with the lifting of UN sanctions as a first good-will gesture. This [...]
Several weeks ago—on March 15 to be exact—we offered a “review of the bidding”: an analysis of three successive statements in the first half of March from the Supreme Command of the KPA (March 5), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (March 7) and the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (March 8). We also [...]
The “Sunshine Policy” of South Korean President Kim Dae-jung derived its name from Aesop’s fable of the North Wind and the Sun in which the Sun and Wind compete to see which can strip the coat off a traveler. While the Wind fruitlessly attempts to blow away the coat off, the Sun uses its warmth [...]
A central problem in dealing with North Korea is the low signal-to-noise ratio in Pyongyang’s policy pronouncements, a point made tellingly in an interesting academic piece by Vito D’Orazio we discussed around the time of the joint military exercises last year. (For those with journal access, the piece was subsequently published in the Journal of [...]
Unable to afford Superbowl ad rates, North Korea went the El Cheapo route, uploading an internet ad for one of its traditional products, “Belligerence.” Or at least that’s what the “North Korea taunts US with weird video” headlines would lead you to believe, but what’s really going on here? First, of all the ad is [...]
The US was quick to announce actions it was taking in compliance with the UNSC Resolution 2087. The Treasury announcement contained one interesting detail and raises a question for policy with respect to China. Ra Ky’ong-Su, one of the designated individuals, is the Tanchon Commerical Bank (TCB) Representative “to Beijing”; similarly Kim Kwang-Il is identified [...]
Thanks to Roberta Cohen, we were alerted to an interesting passage in John Kerry’s Statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday. Kerry reiterated a tough line on Iran, where he noted that the policy of the administration was not containment but prevention. No mention was made of North Korea in the context of [...]
Yesterday, we noted that North Korea’s vitriolic response to a relatively mild UN resolution seemed almost intentionally designed to block progress with both the US and South Korea. Despite the satellite launch, new administrations in Washington and Seoul provided the opening for some experimentation. It didn’t take long for that prediction to come true. No [...]
North Korea has responded to UNSC Resolution 2087 with an extraordinarily inflammatory statement, issued by the National Defense Commission, directly threatening the United States. The statement is reproduced in its entirety below. It is worthwhile to read what the North Koreans actually say without assuming that it is the opening bid in a game with a [...]
