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I do not know what motivated the North Koreans to repeatedly threaten the US over the last couple of months, but I do know what the effect has been: the threats greatly narrow the Obama Administration’s options going forward, especially with respect to any action that would require Congressional approval. It is particularly difficult for [...]
SinoNK is one of a handful of sites—like Curtis Melvin’s North Korea Economy Watch and Michael Madden’s North Korea Leadership Watch—that we find ourselves visiting repeatedly. A central insight of SinoNK is that China is not Beijing and that the border provinces have a distinctive and underappreciated role in China-DPRK relations. It is not only [...]
Former US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has an interesting piece in Foreign Policy about how the North Koreans are testing Chinese patience. We all hope so. Since the passage of the sanctions resolution everyone has been looking for signs that the Chinese may take additional actions. Unfortunately, these stories often reflect wishful thinking, [...]
Why is the US Treasury Department unilaterally sanctioning a bank that conducts no direct business with the United States? And why does this seemingly phantom action represent a major escalation on the part of the US? Park Hyun at Hankyoreh offers some particularly cogent reporting that correctly explains Treasury’s bet. Since it was established in [...]
Bahng Tae-seop and his colleagues at SERI have released the 2013 first quarter report on the Korean peninsula security outlook. It may come as no surprise that the experts surveyed forecast heavy weather. The index of current conditions fell for the fourth consecutive quarter to 42, approaching the all-time minimum of 41 at the time [...]
The Chosun Ilbo recently published a troubling story about the thousands of children of North Korean refugee women currently living without their mothers in China. The story was inspired by a report from the Korean National Human Rights Commission that involved a survey of 100 children living in china with North Korean mothers. The most [...]
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Steph Haggard and I have been updating earlier work on North Korea’s balance of payments in connection with a forthcoming book tentatively titled Hard Target: Sanctions, Inducements, and the North Korea Problem. Given the significant uncertainty about many components of the North Korean balance of payments–revenues from illicit [...]
Over the last several weeks, the North Koreans have issued three separate statements, all emanating from different parts of the state apparatus; they can be found on the KCNA website on the dates cited below. All are intended to show resolve, not only through words but through domestic political mobilization as well. The targets appear [...]
In an earlier post, we provided a broad-brush analysis of the sanctions and noticed one particular feature that constituted a potentially large escape clause. The resolution has a “credible information” clause: activities are proscribed subject to provisos that the proscribed activities “could contribute to the DPRK’s nuclear or ballistic missile programmes, or other activities prohibited [...]
The current edition of KoreAm has a feature on DailyNK reporter Lee Sang-yong’s incarceration in China. It reminded us that we had not covered the strange case when it happened last year. But we should have, as it speaks volumes on Chinese sensitivities on human rights issues generally and on North Korea in particular. Although [...]
