by Nicholas Borst | October 31st, 2012 | 11:15 am
We’ve followed the development of wealth management products (WMPs) with interest on this blog. These financial products act as alternative to deposits, soaking up funds from investors seeking to escape low interest rates on bank deposits. While many analysts have greeted the proliferation of WMPs as backdoor interest rate liberalization, we’ve been more skeptical. Source: CNBenefit A [...]
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Tags: CBRC, Credit, Shadow Banking
by Ryan Rutkowski | October 29th, 2012 | 03:22 pm
Private investors continue to lead the state despite slower growth In the midst of the noise surrounding financing for private companies and state-led stimulus to combat weaker growth this year, it may come as somewhat of a shock that investment by private companies is a major driver of the current recovery in fixed investment growth [...]
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Tags: Investment, Private Sector, SOEs, 国进民退
by Nicholas Borst | October 23rd, 2012 | 12:23 pm
With the third quarter economic data now released, we can give you an update on the progress of economic rebalancing in China. For an explanation of these indicators and why they are important, refer back to our original post on the topic. 1. Disposable Income Growing Faster than GDP Disposable income continued to grow moderately faster than [...]
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Tags: Rebalancing
by Ryan Rutkowski | October 22nd, 2012 | 11:05 am
Why China’s command and control equity markets are no fun When Guo Shuqing took over as head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in October, there was great hope that he would push forward more reforms to make equity markets – only accounting for 3.6 percent of total financing today – a better source [...]
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Tags: CSRC, SOEs
by Nicholas Borst | October 18th, 2012 | 11:04 am
The third quarter GDP number for China was released today, showing a decline in growth to 7.4 percent (compared to 9.1 percent a year ago). Instead of a long post reiterating all the factors at play, sometimes a chart or two can sum things up succinctly. Here are the two most important graphs for understanding the [...]
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Tags: Investment, Real Estate, Rebalancing
by Ryan Rutkowski | October 16th, 2012 | 09:03 am
The bright spot in a slowing dragon Sticky consumption may be a bright spot in the gloomy China slowdown dialog, but will consumers remain optimistic without manufacturing and real estate? Over the most recent Chinese national holiday households were not able to deliver the same pace of sales growth bucking last year’s trend as retail [...]
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Tags: Infrastructure, Investment, Rebalancing
by Nicholas Borst | October 5th, 2012 | 09:51 am
It can be difficult to keep up with the torrent of Chinese economic data. For every statistic showing economic recovery there is another which indicates that growth is still slowing. To cut through the noise, it’s important to identify which indicators show that the Chinese economy is rebalancing towards a more sustainable growth model. This [...]
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Tags: PBoC, Rebalancing
by Ryan Rutkowski | October 3rd, 2012 | 11:20 am
Short of cash to support projects local governments search for alternatives to bank loans As we covered last week, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved a flurry of local infrastructure projects since the third quarter of 2012 worth Rmb 5.06 trillion (closer to $1 trillion accumulated for the whole of 2012). These [...]
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Tags: Credit, Infrastructure, Investment