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Hot off the press, here’s our new policy brief on economic rebalancing in China. The paper takes an updated look at the key policy reforms necessary to achieve economic rebalancing, sketches out a feasible rebalancing scenario over the next decade, and analyzes the domestic political challenges. As always, your public and private comments on this paper are [...]
Be sure to check out the Economist.com which is currently holding a moderated debate related to Arvind Subramanian’s new book Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance. The motion being debated is: “This house believes that the yuan will be the world’s main reserve currency within 10 years.”
All the discussion about including the renminbi in the Special Drawings Rights (SDR) basket established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a side-show or distraction with the real action being the conditional imminence of the renminbi’s rise. That is not a judgment, just a description of reality. Last week, the renminbi was in the [...]
The New York Times has a column on September 8th (“China’s Rise Isn’t Our Demise”) in which Vice President Joe Biden stresses the positive-sum rather than zero-sum nature of the relationship between China and the United States. But is it entirely positive sum? Are there elements of rivalry and possibilities of conflict? And how should [...]
Is China poised to take over from the United States as the world’s most economically dominant power? This is an essential question, and yet it has not yet been taken seriously enough in the United States, where, this central conceit still reigns: the United States’ economic preeminence cannot be seriously threatened because it is the [...]